INTEL BUSINESS CASE: Does Intel really use internal prediction markets?

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Emile Servan-Schreiber and Chris Hibbert (two veterans of the field of prediction markets) have strong doubts that Intel is using a trading mechanism. (Nothing wrong with using a non-trading mechanism, we just want to know for sure. :) )

I will re-read the Intel paper later on, but here is a quick stats: the phrase &#8220-prediction markets&#8221- is used 15 times in the paper, including 7 times in the section titled, you guessed it, &#8220-MARKET MECHANISMS AS FORECASTING TOOLS&#8220-.

And here&#8217-s a crucial sentence I found out in the abstract:

The process enables product and market experts to dynamically negotiate product forecasts in an environment offering anonymity and performance-based incentives.

Does negotiation mean trading here? My first reading was &#8220-yes&#8221-, but I wonder what it means in light of the comment made by market design expert Chris Hibbert.

Previous: INTEL BUSINESS CASE: INTERNAL PREDICTION MARKETS DO WORK.

New Kid on the Blog: Nosco.

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Nosco is a Danish company specialized in Prediction Markets. We are very happy to have been given the opportunity to blog here at Midas Oracle.

We will try to keep you all updated on the business of prediction markets in Scandinavia.

A few words about Nosco
Nosco was founded in 2006 by Jesper Krogstrup and Oliver Bernhard Pedersen. We are currently five employees. We use our own custom-designed software, Information Exchange. Among our clients are TV 2 (the largest Danish television channel) and Danske Bank (Scandinavia’s largest bank).

TV 2
In February 2007, the Danish Television channel TV 2|Denmark launched &#8216-Nyhedsspillet&#8216- (The News game). ‘Nyhedsspillet’ is a Prediction Market in news. Our main approach has been to make the user an active part of the news and thereby giving the user a feeling of influence and interaction. In less than 3 months, 21.000 people participated in ‘Nyhedsspillet’.

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By means of RSS, we show all relevant news/articles on a dynamic graph. This provides the participant with a visual timeline of all relevant news. Also, we can automatically push a small graph of the share to all relevant articles.

Danske Bank
Nosco have also designed internal Prediction Markets for the largest banks in Scandinavia. In this case, Prediction Markets are being used to evaluate ideas and to estimate key variables in regards to change management.

Hal Varian becomes Googles chief economist.

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Via Greg Mankiw (whom you will have to read between the lines), this New York Times piece:

The View column will now be written by a rotating panel of outside economists. Besides Mr. Mankiw, it will include Alan Blinder, Judith Chevalier, Robert Shiller and Lester Thurow, as well as three of the economists who have been writing the Economic Scene column on Thursdays: Austan Goolsbee, Tyler Cowen and Robert Frank. (The fourth member of the Scene rotation, Hal R. Varian, is leaving to concentrate on his new role as Google’s chief economist.)

The Midas Oracle readers will remember that professor Hal Varian is the economics authority (revered by the Google executives) who consulted with Bo Cowgill&#8217-s 20% team on designing and pitching an internal prediction markets pilot. Professor Hal Varian commands respect and has made important contributions to Google&#8217-s core business.

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Hal R. Varian interviewed by the Wall Street Journal on his new position at Google.

WSJ: What does the job entail?

Varian: During my time at Google we have built up a world-class group of quantitative analysts, and the economics team will complement these existing resources. Google has a great infrastructure for data analysis, and a management team that is very receptive to quantitative methods and willing to invest in this area. So what more could you ask for? In addition to working on analytics, I’ve also worked on various business strategy and public policy issues, and will continue to do so as the occasion arises. This set of issues will only get more important to Google as time goes on, so I expect that this will also involve a fair amount of my time.

Note: Bo Cowgill&#8217-s official business title at Google is &#8220-Technical Data Analyst&#8220-.

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Previous: Meet Hal Varian, Google&#8217-s Chief Economist.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • If I had to guess, I would say about 50 percent of the “name pros” you see on television on a regular basis have a negative net worth. Frightening, I know.
  • You can’t measure the usefulness of a system by how many resources it consumes.
  • STRAIGHT FROM THE DOUBLESPEAK DEPARTMENT: NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber, well known to chase tirelessly the Infidels who dare calling “prediction markets” their damn polling system, is eager to sell the confusion to his clients and whomever would listen.
  • John Delaney is such a poor marketer that he is willing to outsource the making of InTrade’s next logo (a company’s most important visual message) to the first moron met over the Internet who is stupid enough to work for a bunch of figs.
  • ProKons strongly believe that (play-money) prediction markets are bozo immune.
  • REBUTTAL: SalesForce, StarBucks and Dell demonstrate that enterprise prediction markets as intra-corporation communication tools (as opposed to forecasting tools) are overhyped by the prediction market software vendors and a little clique of uncritical courtisans.
  • Comments are often more interesting than the post that ignited them.