Daily Archives: June 12, 2007

Meets Andrew Wing, the new CEO of Cantor Entertainment, which operates the Hollywood Stock Exchange.

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Andrew Wing, the new CEO of Cantor Entertainment

Andrew Wing

Variety:

He&#8217-ll work closely with the HSX team to adapt the technology of the virtual stock exchange in developing new products.

TRANSLATION: The current version of the HSX software is stodgy, which may explain why they have only Storage Markets and Pop Sci as clients for their software platform, it seems.

Thanks to Fabian John in Germany for the tip.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Prediction markets are about lowering transaction costs. That’s how sports come in.
  • The birth certificate of the next president of the United States of America –maybe
  • The marketing association between BetFair and TOTE Tasmania works better than expected.
  • The term “event markets” sucks —and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.
  • CLIMBING HIS WAY TO THE TOP: Erik Snowberg is now Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology.
  • Unlike other countries, the United States of America defends the freedom to offend in speech.
  • The best research papers on prediction markets

Second Workshop on Prediction Markets – San Diego, California, U.S.A. – June 12, 2007

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Second Workshop on Prediction Markets – San Diego, California, U.S.A. – June 12, 2007

&#8212-

8:30 – 8:35 Opening remark

4:45 – 5:45 Industrial Panel

  • Russell Anderson, HedgeStreet
  • Matthew Fogarty, Electronic Arts
  • David Perry, Consensus Point
  • Emile Servan-Schreiber, Newsfutures

&#8212-

One hour only for the software vendors?? It&#8217-s an academic conference, then, not an industry conference. Which may explain why only two software vendors made the trip.

The real industry forum is Midas Oracle, anyway. There are 50 times more people on this group blog every day that God makes than in their phone-booth academic conference. :)

That said, best wishes to David Pennock for his conference. (That&#8217-s him who is behind all this commotion, right?? :) )

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Psstt… Spot that comment, on Google News, about… “bellwethers”… from a political scientist.
  • INSIDER’s STORY: The insightful strategic business report about The Evil Empire that Henry Berg does not want you to see
  • Prediction markets are about lowering transaction costs. That’s how sports come in.
  • The birth certificate of the next president of the United States of America –maybe
  • The marketing association between BetFair and TOTE Tasmania works better than expected.
  • The term “event markets” sucks —and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.
  • CLIMBING HIS WAY TO THE TOP: Erik Snowberg is now Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology.

In virtuellen Borsen wetten Web-Nutzer auf den Erfolg von Filmen, Romanen und Computerspielen. Immer mehr Unternehmen nutzen diese Prognosen, die Branche boomt. Zurecht, denn Wissenschaftler bestatigen: Niemand sagt Erfolg in Hollywood so gut voraus wie die Borsen-Spieler im Internet.

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Via Greek Extraordinaire George Tziralis, Der Spiegel on prediction markets (Internet-Orakel sieht Hollywoods Blockbuster voraus). Here&#8217-s a translation of the highlights (provided by George):

title: Internet Oracle foresee Hollywood Blockbusters
abstract: In virtual exchanges web users bet on the success of films, novels nd computer games. The number of applications that use such prognoses grow, the branch booms. Indeed, the scientists confirm: Nobody can make forecasts in Hollywood success as good as market games in internet.

secondary titles:
Always new prediction markets
More reliable than experts
professor Spann: The market weights the experts&#8217- opinions and attracts through incentives new knowledge
Good Forecasts in elections, Sport, Films
Justin Wolfers: Such prediction markets bring normally better predictions than experts, when election, sport results or economic development forecasts are concerned.
Base market study: Strong concept with distinctive blind marks
New concept: Idea markets
Companies test internal markets

Here&#8217-s Justin Wolfers:

Es gibt viele andere Erfolgs-Beispiele. Justin Wolfers, Wirtschaftswissenschaftler an der University of Pennsylvania, der seit Jahren Internet-Prognoseborsen erforscht, fasst seine Ergebnisse gegenuber SPIEGEL ONLINE so zusammen: &#8220-Solche Prognose-Markte bringen in der Regel bessere Prognosen als Experten hervor, wenn es um Wahlprognosen, Sportereignisse oder Vorhersagen zur Wirtschaftsentwicklung geht.&#8221-

They call that &#8220-prognosis markets&#8221-, it seems. (Or &#8220-prognostic markets&#8221-, maybe.)

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Psstt… Spot that comment, on Google News, about… “bellwethers”… from a political scientist.
  • INSIDER’s STORY: The insightful strategic business report about The Evil Empire that Henry Berg does not want you to see
  • Prediction markets are about lowering transaction costs. That’s how sports come in.
  • The birth certificate of the next president of the United States of America –maybe
  • The marketing association between BetFair and TOTE Tasmania works better than expected.
  • The term “event markets” sucks —and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.
  • CLIMBING HIS WAY TO THE TOP: Erik Snowberg is now Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology.