In virtuellen Borsen wetten Web-Nutzer auf den Erfolg von Filmen, Romanen und Computerspielen. Immer mehr Unternehmen nutzen diese Prognosen, die Branche boomt. Zurecht, denn Wissenschaftler bestatigen: Niemand sagt Erfolg in Hollywood so gut voraus wie die Borsen-Spieler im Internet.

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Via Greek Extraordinaire George Tziralis, Der Spiegel on prediction markets (Internet-Orakel sieht Hollywoods Blockbuster voraus). Here&#8217-s a translation of the highlights (provided by George):

title: Internet Oracle foresee Hollywood Blockbusters
abstract: In virtual exchanges web users bet on the success of films, novels nd computer games. The number of applications that use such prognoses grow, the branch booms. Indeed, the scientists confirm: Nobody can make forecasts in Hollywood success as good as market games in internet.

secondary titles:
Always new prediction markets
More reliable than experts
professor Spann: The market weights the experts&#8217- opinions and attracts through incentives new knowledge
Good Forecasts in elections, Sport, Films
Justin Wolfers: Such prediction markets bring normally better predictions than experts, when election, sport results or economic development forecasts are concerned.
Base market study: Strong concept with distinctive blind marks
New concept: Idea markets
Companies test internal markets

Here&#8217-s Justin Wolfers:

Es gibt viele andere Erfolgs-Beispiele. Justin Wolfers, Wirtschaftswissenschaftler an der University of Pennsylvania, der seit Jahren Internet-Prognoseborsen erforscht, fasst seine Ergebnisse gegenuber SPIEGEL ONLINE so zusammen: &#8220-Solche Prognose-Markte bringen in der Regel bessere Prognosen als Experten hervor, wenn es um Wahlprognosen, Sportereignisse oder Vorhersagen zur Wirtschaftsentwicklung geht.&#8221-

They call that &#8220-prognosis markets&#8221-, it seems. (Or &#8220-prognostic markets&#8221-, maybe.)

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Psstt… Spot that comment, on Google News, about… “bellwethers”… from a political scientist.
  • INSIDER’s STORY: The insightful strategic business report about The Evil Empire that Henry Berg does not want you to see
  • Prediction markets are about lowering transaction costs. That’s how sports come in.
  • The birth certificate of the next president of the United States of America –maybe
  • The marketing association between BetFair and TOTE Tasmania works better than expected.
  • The term “event markets” sucks —and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.
  • CLIMBING HIS WAY TO THE TOP: Erik Snowberg is now Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology.

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