Daily Archives: November 15, 2006

Ouch! – Finding from a Web usability expert (Jakob Nielsen): 50% of Web readers dont scroll down the webpage.

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From today&#8217-s New York Times:

Studies by Mr. Nielsen’s company, the Nielsen Norman Group, an Internet design firm in Fremont, Calif., show that only 50 percent of Web visitors scroll down the screen to see what lies below the visible part on their PC monitor. “Users spend 30 seconds reviewing a home page,” Mr. Nielsen said. “A business must encapsulate what they do in very few words.”

Web Usability Links:

– Jakob Nielsen: UseIt.com – AlertBox –

– David Pennock and Robin Hanson, the wannabe bloggers, would probably pass the following Jakob Nielsen test: Weblog Usability: The Top Ten Design Mistakes – by Jakob Nielsen – 2005-10-17

– Alex Kirtland – Blog: Usable Markets – E-mail interview with Alex Kirtland.

Prediction Markets vs. Political Pundits – 2006 US Senate (GOP control + individual races)

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&#8230- More exactly TradeSports-InTrade and Iowa Electronic Markets VERSUS The McLaughlin Group (PBS).

Reason Magazine writes:

Weirdly, the McLaughlin Group, the fustiest of all the talking head shows, had one of the best records this cycle, with Eleanor Clift, Lawrence O&#8217-Donnell, and John McLaughlin all predicting Democratic takeover of the Senate and calling nearly all of the close races correctly. Still, that old line about stopped clocks comes to mind.

Reality Check:

Vo, vo, vo. Not so fast. The McLaughlin Group is made up of five members. Three of them predicted the Dems in the US Senate, and so (if I&#8217-m correct) the associated probability was 3/5 = 60%. It does not strike me as an unanimous consensus.

As for TradeSports, Professor Lance Fortnow wrote that all (NOT: &#8220-nearly all&#8221-) individual 2006 US Senate races were predicted correctly.

More Links:

– The McLaughlin Group (PBS + CNBC Europe)

– 2006-11-03: Transcript – Audio (MP3) – Video (MP4) –

Parting Shot:

If the small-L and capital-L libertarians at Reason Magazine sides with the leftist bloggers and media in the anti-PM backlash, and if some from-day-one prediction market supporter goes amock, then the logical conclusion is: The Prediction Markets Have NOT Arrived Yet.