Monthly Archives: October 2006

Best Trading Interface? Here’s One Possibility.

Posted on October 30, 2006 by Robert McLister

Alex Kirtland is right on the money when he suggests equating prediction markets with a familiar concept like stock trading. This is often the easiest way to get new users up to speed. Clearly, building a simple trading interface is … Continue reading →

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Is the field of public, real-money prediction markets a 5-star industry?

Posted on October 28, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

I’m using Michael Porter’s 5-forces concept to make a back-of-the-envelope analysis of the betting exchange industry. Threat of new entrants: NO * — Just like with eBay or the CME, it’s not possible for a start-up to compete with BetFair. … Continue reading →

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To the whining TradeSports traders: How much of a libertarian are you?

Posted on October 28, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

In light of the passing of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, many TradeSports traders suddenly re-discovered the libertarianism principles. Well, it’s never too late. However, to pose as a “libertarian” on the TradeSports forum does not do … Continue reading →

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10 days left till the November 7′s mid-term congressional elections: Are polls reliable?

Posted on October 28, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Hummm… The WSJ shows us a 1994 comparison between polls and the actual outcome, which leads me to think that the Dems’s victory will be more smashing that one thinks these days. (See the WSJ picture, below.) Let’s look at … Continue reading →

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Is the hedging economic purpose test ambiguous?

Posted on October 27, 2006 by Jason Ruspini

Apropos of Andrew Gelman’s recent comments on the questionable benefits of betting markets, if insurance can be understood as reducing variance in wealth, consider the effect of diversification at the portfolio level. Uncorrelated assets such as those attached to political … Continue reading →

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Prediction Markets Aggregating Polls Data?

Posted on October 27, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Adam Gurri: I was scratching my head about this guy the other day, but he has made his point a little more concisely now. Simply put, the guy believes that political prediction markets serve no function beyond aggregating poll data. … Continue reading →

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BetFair fixes the corruption that it suscitates (since short selling could be used by cheating athletes or jockeys).

Posted on October 26, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

From Andrew Gelman: In a letter published in the latest New Yorker, Douglas Robertson writes, James Surowiecki, in his column on sports betting, writes, “How much difference is there, after all, between betting on the future price of wheat . … Continue reading →

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Forecasting House Seats from Generic Congressional Polls

Posted on October 26, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Via Andrew Gelman, this paper (PDF): Via computer simulation based on statistical analysis of historical data, we show how generic vote polls can be used to forecast the election outcome. We convert the results of generic vote polls into a … Continue reading →

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BetFair’s information technology infrastructure is second to none. Yet another proof:

Posted on October 26, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

Betfair Wins First Annual Citrix Customer Innovation Award Betting Firm Finds Web Application Optimisation a Safe Bet Exponential traffic growth, spikes in traffic and user sensitivity to response times made Betfair’s infrastructure challenge much more acute than that of other … Continue reading →

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Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 – Law Enforcers & TradeSports-InTrade

Posted on October 26, 2006 by Chris F. Masse

I notice many visits from treas.gov, federalreserve.org and usdoj.gov. Do you think that they are here to gather info on how to set TradeSports up and put TEN CEO John Delaney behind bars, or at the contrary, to exclude this … Continue reading →

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