Do sports prediction markets corrupt sport? No.

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Mark Davies (&#8221-managing director of corporate affairs at BetFair&#8221- = their spin doctor) in The Guardian:

Does the existence of betting exchanges corrupt sport?

NO

In the world of finance, it has always been far easier for employees to have a negative impact on a company&#8217-s share price than a positive one. Even a chief executive would be hard pushed to cause a price rise on any given day, but anyone with physical access to the company can very easily cause a fall. No one would suggest people should only be able to buy shares, and not sell them. Instead, regulators ensure that sanctions against corruption tip the balance heavily against trying it. Make the penalty draconian, and you deal with corruption at its heart.

Betting on sport is no different. The only people who can corrupt sport are those taking part – a fact unchanged by the existence of betting exchanges. If you prevent people from succumbing to the temptation, would-be corrupters have no one to help them . You and I cannot rig a race just because we can bet against its outcome: we need someone who can affect the result. If that person might lose a livelihood, would they risk it for a fast buck?

Attack corruption at source, and it does not matter where the bet was placed. Nevertheless, some still long for the days when more traditional bookmakers held every card (an interesting notion considering what has historically been their dubious reputation)- others prefer a Tote monopoly- and some believe that banning bets against outcomes would constrain corrupters.

This series of arguments is based on the naive belief that a black market does not exist. This is absurd. Asian syndicates behind apparently rigged football matches (like those who turned floodlights out at grounds in the late 1990s) are no more dependent on Britain&#8217-s legitimate market than Colombian drugs barons are on sales of aspirin at Boots. The difference between legal, regulated, transparent betting – nowhere more so than on the leading betting exchange [= BetFair], where every transaction is open to scrutiny from 29 different sporting regulators – and the murky, illegal market, is the difference between chalk and cheese.

Black markets thrive where legal ones offer poor value. Now that the exchanges offer the best value, those previously tempted by odds on the black market are returning to the legal fold. Corruption-free sport comes from total transparency. The exchanges are the only part of the market that offer it. People get hung up on &#8220-betting to lose&#8221-.

Leave aside the obvious: bets to win (most clearly demonstrated in two outcome sports like tennis or snooker) are direct bets on the opposite outcome to lose. &#8220-Betting to lose&#8221- is just betting at value: if the price unfairly reflects the realistic chance of something happening, why should you not bet against it?

Value bets, placed for or against, are perfectly legitimate- acting to impact a given outcome adversely is corrupt. But banning the former through fear of the latter is like banning cutlery because some people use knives to harm. It is not the knives doing the damage, but the criminals using them. Legal betting does not corrupt sport- people do – and they are more likely to do it when they think they w ill not get caught. Measures to protect sport are not best aimed at open, transparent, and audited betting markets but through its participants, where the corruption can occur.

Excellent.

GUARDIAN BLOGGER: BETFAIR SPIN-DOCTOR DOES NOT SAY THE TRUTH ABOUT SPORTS CORRUPTION.

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Lawrence Donegan:

Odds-on liquidity showing interest in Scottish youth

Can it really be more than a month since Betfair&#8217-s Mark Davies appeared in print to reject the suggestion that the gambling boom is in any way responsible for the apparent increase in corruption in sport, by pointing out that dodgy dealing has been around since the days of the gladiators? Presumably, reports of 15 football matches from this season being under investigation will see Davis, like Edward Gibbon in a pork-pie hat, return to the fray with another tale from the Colosseum. Meanwhile, far from events at Anfield – figuratively if not geographically – comes news that under-21 games in Scotland are the subject of huge bets by Asian gamblers. Some might think this is a sinister development but not the Betfair spokesman, who told the Daily Record last month that the company would be happy to open a book on the youth sporting market if there was &#8220-liquidity and interest&#8221-.

With all due respect to the Guardian blogger cited above, I side with Mark Davies. See his verbatim, just below.

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Mark Davies, BetFair’s Managing Director (Corporate Affairs)

Mark Davies (BetFair’s Managing Director)

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Mark Davies interviewed by The Daily Telegraph (in October 2007):

[Tennis] has always been liable to corruption.

I think that all sport has always been liable to corruption, by the very nature of it producing clear results one way or another. They say that chariot races were rigged for financial reward. I don&#8217-t see why subsequent sporting events should suddenly have been less liable to corrupt practice. We would strongly dispute the idea that sport suddenly has a corruption problem because of the boom in gambling.

The amount of money bet in the legal market may have grown — who knows if it has risen or fallen in the illegal one? — but the number of people who can be tempted by that money and use it for corrupt reasons is the same as it always was.