Felix Salmon (#):
Finance, at least in its virulent form of the past 20 years or so. Macau is in much better shape than Iceland, or Dubai. Millions of people genuinely believe they can and will get rich by day-trading stocks and options and whatnot- the ranks of professional gamblers are much smaller and much less delusional.
I asked Stern if it is in the best interests of his league to seek legalization of sports betting. He sighed with his head down, as if to emphasize the gravity of what he was going to say.
“-It has been a matter of league policy to answer that question, ‘-No,’- ”- he said. “-But I think that that league policy was formulated at a time when gambling was far less widespread —- even legally.”-
He went on to provide a brief lesson in history involving J. Walter Kennedy, the NBA commissioner from 1963-75. “-Walter Kennedy testified in Congress many years ago, probably over 40, that gambling —- any gambling, not just sports —- should not be allowed in Atlantic City, that gambling shouldn’-t be expanded,”- said Stern, who was a lawyer for the NBA at that time. “-I remember it because I wrote a statement. It was the U.S. association of attorneys general, the U.S. attorneys association, the association of chiefs of police, the clergy of all denominations —- all lined up to say that expanding [was wrong] …- and I don’-t think lotteries were legal back then.
“-So that was the sin. And that’-s the way sports grew up in their opposition.”-
What has changed, Stern acknowledged, is that the NBA can no longer oppose gambling on moral grounds.
“-Considering the fact that so many state governments —- probably between 40 and 50 —- don’-t consider it immoral, I don’-t think that anyone [else] should,”- Stern went on. “-It may be a little immoral, because it really is a tax on the poor, the lotteries. But having said that, it’-s now a matter of national policy: Gambling is good.
“-So we have morphed considerably in our corporate view where we say, Look, Las Vegas is not evil. Las Vegas is a vacation and destination resort, and they have sports gambling and, in fact, there’-s a federal statute that gives them a monopoly of types [on sports betting]. And we actually supported that statute back in ‘-92.”-
Stern has long maintained that he doesn’-t want the NBA to turn into a point-spread league, and he talked about how NBA games create little of the sports-betting handle in Vegas, and that the majority of NBA fans have scant interest in the spread. I responded by noting that the NBA has created a variety of constituencies, including fans who wear NBA clothing, who play NBA video games and who view Kobe Bryant and LeBron James as Hollywood-level stars, which is not to forget the fans from any number of countries who follow the NBA patriotically via Dirk Nowitzki, Tony Parker or Yao Ming.
Why not make room under the big tent for the minority of fans who like to bet on NBA games?
“-OK, but then you’-re arguing there may be good and sufficient business reasons to do that,”- Stern said. “-And I’-m going to leave the slate clean for my successor.”-
He smiled and added, “-But it’-s fair enough that we have moved to a point where that leap is a possibility, although that’-s not our current position.”-
There you have it. That is a breakthrough. You don’-t hear baseball commissioner Bud Selig —- and you surely don’-t hear NFL commissioner Roger Goodell —- saying that legalized betting on their games is a “-possibility.”- Sports betting is their third rail, and they’-ve long maintained the anachronistic appearance of having nothing to do with it. (Even though illegal sports betting has helped turn the NFL into the No. 1 sport in America.)
As Stern acknowledged, gambling has gone mainstream since the scandal of 1919. The gambling industry will continue to grow as more and more casinos are built throughout the nation, such as the casino now being planned by Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert for downtown Cleveland nearby Quicken Loans Arena.
Without committing himself in any way, Stern acknowledged that sports betting could create a new stream of revenue for the NBA —- not unlike the interest that March Madness betting pools have created for the NCAA tournament.
“-You’-re right about the threat that we perceive, and we stay on it,”- said Stern of the menace of illegal gambling rings. “-I think the threat is the same legal and illegal —- the threat is there.
“-Gambling, however it may have moved closer to the line [of becoming acceptable], is still viewed on the threat side,”- he said. “-Although we understand fully why, buried within that threat there may be a huge opportunity as well.”-
All went well. All witnesses were in favor of legalizing Internet gambling. Read the tidbits on http://twitter.com/midasoracle.
–- PR about the hearing coming from the Safe and Secure Internet Gambling Initiative:
[H.R. 2266, Reasonable Prudence in Regulation Act, and H.R. 2267, the Internet Gambling Regulation, Consumer Protection, and Enforcement Act]
Addendum:
Safe and Secure Internet Gambling Initiative spokesman Michael Waxman responds to a House Committee on Financial Services hearing on Internet gambling on December 3, 2009:
[H.R. 2266, Reasonable Prudence in Regulation Act, and H.R. 2267, the Internet Gambling Regulation, Consumer Protection, and Enforcement Ac
Addendum:
“-The United States’- War against Online Gambling”- –- An analysis of how the US sought and failed to stamp out internet gambling.
Addendum:
“-The road to nowhere –- European gambling law from Schindler to Bwin Liga and beyond.”-. An analysis of European Gambling Law by Niall O’-Connor
The journey from the European Court of Justice’-s ruling in Schindler to its most recent ruling in Bwin Liga has been a long one, during which, many lawyers have enriched themselves. Little has actually been settled to date, and many fear that under the leadership of Michel Barnier, that that is unlikely to change.
Addendum:
Derren Brown: How to Win the Lottery (Channel 4 in the U.K.)
On 9 September 2009, [British illusionist] Derren Brown conducted a live TV broadcast in which he suggested that he had successfully predicted the winning National Lottery numbers prior to them being drawn. During the broadcast a number of blank lottery balls were displayed on a glass stand in clear view of the camera, and after the lottery draw had been made, the balls were rotated to reveal the winning numbers. It was claimed by Derren Brown that the only other people in the studio were two camera operators, to avoid legal issues, and that the stunt had been authorised by Camelot, the National Lottery operators.
Great Britain is buzzing like crazy about the stunt.
He claimed it was based on an old trick which tells how a crowd of people at a country fair accurately estimated the weight of an ox when their guesses were all averaged out. He gathered a panel of 24 people who wrote down their predictions after studying the last year’s worth of numbers. Then they added up all the guesses for each ball and divided it by 24 to get the average guess. On the first go they only got one number right, on the second attempt they managed three and on the third they guessed four. By the time of last week’s draw they had honed their technique to get six correct guesses, and these were the numbers shown on the Wednesday night programme. [Derren] Brown claims that the predictions were correct because of the “wisdom of the crowd” theory which suggests that a large group of people making average guesses will come up with the correct figure as an average of all their attempts. He also suggested that if the people were motivated by money, it may not work.
Well, we know a lot about the “wisdom of crowds“, here, as Midas Oracle specializes in collective intelligence. The idea of the “wisdom of crowds” is to aggregate bits of information that are dispersed in a population of independently minded individuals. The result of that information aggregation is a predictive power slightly superior (on average, over the long term) to what one single individual can produce —even a gifted one. However, the “wisdom of crowds” is not powerful enough to predict the future with 100% certainty. For that, you would have to reverse the psychological arrow of time —so as to remember the future as opposed to the past. Physicists tell us this is impossible in our universe. Hence, Derren Brown used a trick [WATCH THE 3RD VIDEO BELOW] —and concealed it with some blahblah about the “wisdom of crowds”.
“Check the ball on the right after Derren Brown says ‘23′. Notice it mysteriously jumps up and is slightly higher than the other 5 balls. (apologies for the camera wobble but my camera is on a tripod, the wobble is from the camera on the show which is programmed to wobble so you can’t see the switch of the balls). So no magic, NLP, psychology or mind-tricks. Just good old fashioned camera trickery. ”
How Derren Brown ‘divined’ the lotto numbers:
For the tip, thanks to Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures —we’re impatient to see the new version of their software / prediction market website.
Next: Why did illusionist Derren Brown invoke the “wisdom of crowds” in his lottery win explanation?
UPDATE:
His next event: Trying to beat the casino.
Science Of Scams – Advert from Phillis Dorris on Vimeo.
Derren Brown: How to Win the Lottery (Channel 4 in the U.K.)
On 9 September 2009, [British illusionist] Derren Brown conducted a live TV broadcast in which he suggested that he had successfully predicted the winning National Lottery numbers prior to them being drawn. During the broadcast a number of blank lottery balls were displayed on a glass stand in clear view of the camera, and after the lottery draw had been made, the balls were rotated to reveal the winning numbers. It was claimed by Derren Brown that the only other people in the studio were two camera operators, to avoid legal issues, and that the stunt had been authorised by Camelot, the National Lottery operators.
Great Britain is buzzing like crazy about the stunt.
He claimed it was based on an old trick which tells how a crowd of people at a country fair accurately estimated the weight of an ox when their guesses were all averaged out. He gathered a panel of 24 people who wrote down their predictions after studying the last year’-s worth of numbers. Then they added up all the guesses for each ball and divided it by 24 to get the average guess. On the first go they only got one number right, on the second attempt they managed three and on the third they guessed four. By the time of last week’-s draw they had honed their technique to get six correct guesses, and these were the numbers shown on the Wednesday night programme. [Derren] Brown claims that the predictions were correct because of the “-wisdom of the crowd”- theory which suggests that a large group of people making average guesses will come up with the correct figure as an average of all their attempts. He also suggested that if the people were motivated by money, it may not work.
Well, we know a lot about the “-wisdom of crowds“-, here, as Midas Oracle specializes in collective intelligence. The idea of the “-wisdom of crowds”- is to aggregate bits of information that are dispersed in a population of independently minded individuals. The result of that information aggregation is a predictive power slightly superior (on average, over the long term) to what one single individual can produce —-even a gifted one. However, the “-wisdom of crowds”- is not powerful enough to predict the future with 100% certainty. For that, you would have to reverse the psychological arrow of time —-so as to remember the future as opposed to the past. Physicists tell us this is impossible in our universe. Hence, Derren Brown used a trick [WATCH THE 3RD VIDEO BELOW] —-and concealed it with some blahblah about the “-wisdom of crowds”-.
“-Check the ball on the right after Derren Brown says ‘-23′-. Notice it mysteriously jumps up and is slightly higher than the other 5 balls. (apologies for the camera wobble but my camera is on a tripod, the wobble is from the camera on the show which is programmed to wobble so you can’-t see the switch of the balls). So no magic, NLP, psychology or mind-tricks. Just good old fashioned camera trickery. ”-
How Derren Brown ‘-divined’- the lotto numbers:
For the tip, thanks to Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures —-we’-re impatient to see the new version of their software / prediction market website.
UPDATE:
His next event: Trying to beat the casino.
Science Of Scams –- Advert from Phillis Dorris on Vimeo.