#1. Results of the first round: Republican Nicolas Sarkozy (31.2%), Socialist Segolene Royal (25.9%) —-updated
Then come Centrist Francois Bayrou (18.6%), Right-Wing Extremist Jean-Marie Le Pen (10.4%) and then the “-small”- candidates.
#2. The second round will be in two weeks: Republican Nicolas Sarkozy vs. Socialist Segolene Royal
All the polls have shown that the Republican Nicolas Sarkozy will beat her easily.
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PREDICTION MARKETS: The market-generated probability of the Socialist candidate has increased. Easy to understand why. There was an uncertainty about the Socialist candidate: “-Will she make it to the second round?”-. Now this uncertainty is over. Blogger Mike Smithson makes it like it is big news, but that’-s bullshit.
French Republican Nicolas Sarkozy: 77% at BetFair.
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The Economist (Apr 12th 2007):
No French presidential election in 50 years has looked as unpredictable as this year’s, the first round of which takes place on April 22nd. […]
Complete bullshit. Give us the market-generated probabilities, instead of the “-sentiment”- of the journalos.
Previous: WHY THE ECONOMIST SHOULD ADD MARKET-GENERATED PROBABILITIES NEXT TO ITS CONTENT. + NEXT SUNDAY, THE FRENCH WILL ELECT REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THEIR PRESIDENT.
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TAKEAWAY: French President Nicolas Sarkozy will reform the French economy —-France is a socialist country, right now.
UPDATE: Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures has published an update about the 2007 French presidential election on the French group blog “-AgoraVox”-.