Tag Archives: Blogs

Prediction market journalism cant be practiced by the mainstream media. What we need is a revolution.

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The eyes-wide-opened Alexis Perrier notes that many &#8220-mainstream media&#8221- do talk about political prediction markets, these days.

But that&#8217-s a superficial coverage &#8212-basically, explaining to morons (surfacing from their Afghan cave) what InTrade does. The real thing is prediction market journalism &#8212-and to this day, only Justin Wolfers does practice it (once a month).

To get real PMJ done, we will need brand-new digital publications and brand-new people &#8212-just like the newly created tech blogs (like TechCrunch) are employing a new batch of writers, using new tools and new methods.

If you look at the 87 feeds I subscribe to, I get my IT news from professional blogs &#8212-not from mainstream media.

Prediction market journalism has a future only if professional blogs adopting this approach are to be created.

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73% of journalists [*] sometimes or always use blogs in their research.

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No Gravatar[*] = newspaper, magazine, TV, radio, and web journalists

Editors &amp- Publishers

Via Henry Blodget (who is hilarious, as always)

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Implications for the field of prediction markets (InTrade-TradeFair, BetFair-TradeFair, Betdaq, HSX, NewsFutures, Inkling Markets, etc.):

  1. The P.R. arm of the prediction market firms should also reach the bloggers &#8212-not just the journalists.
  2. Prediction market firms should monitor the Blogosphere for rumors, and deal with them in a subtitle way. :-D
  3. A long (&#8220-too long&#8221-, some will say), balanced, detailed blog post about your product is more useful to reach out than a media kit. :-D
  4. Our industry needs a blog network of reference, all focused on prediction markets. :-D

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Last year’s best April Fool’s Day Joke had something to do with the Wisdom Of Crowds.
  • Will HedgeStreet USA, the hypothetical InTrade USA, and the hypothetical TradeFair USA, be regulated in the future by a merged SEC+CFTC regulatory structure?
  • WORST THAN ELIOT SPITZER (if it were possible): Formula One boss, Max Mosley, had sado-masochist sex with 5 prostitutes, for 5 hours (!!), reenacting a concentration camp scene (!!) in which he played the role of both Nazi guard and inmate.
  • Is BetFair Poker a booby trap for the gullible novices? Does The Sporting Exchange (the operator of the BetFair brands) help gangs plucking down innocent recreational poker players?? To get an inkling, don’t read The Guardian, seeded by the BetFair spin doctor- read Midas Oracle.
  • The video that the technologically retarded BetFair spin doctor should watch.

Why blogs on prediction markets are lively and interesting to read, while conferences on prediction markets are as dull as German sausages and suck like GoldFish.

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No GravatarGoldFish

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Signal Vs. Noise:

Web Conferences: Where&#8217-s the outrage?

Over the past 7 years I’ve probably been to almost every major web industry conference at least once. I can’t remember the last time I saw a good honest disagreeable debate on stage. There’s too much “yeah, totally” and “I definitely agree” and “Absolutely” going around.

Panels of friends

Part of why this happens is that the web design industry as a whole is pretty chummy when it gets together. That’s not a bad thing, but it amplifies the echo chamber. Another reason why this happens is that when people put panels together they usually put their friends on them. Friends can disagree, but it doesn’t happen in public very often. Finally, most of the panels I’ve seen aren’t assembled to present three different points of view — they are assembled to present the same point of view in three different ways.

Conferences are meek, Blogs are strong

There’s plenty of debates going on over the web. Take the recent Calcanis vs. Hansson round. And then the recent Norman vs. 37signals exchange. And then there are the savvy provocateurs such as Michael Arrington that suggested 37signals drove a company to the deadpool because we encourage people charge for their products. We didn’t respond on the web, but it would be fun in person. These back and forths are wonderful. They are passionate, interesting, and heated. People are forced to sharpen their position and everyone learns a thing or two. They expose important discussions and spawn new ones. They also generate a lot of traffic for those involved. So why does the web have all the good debates? Where are the web conferences pitting two opposing viewpoints on stage? Hearing two passionate points is a great way to reevaluate what you believe. Where’s the web conference called Web Fight Night? I see a big market opportunity. [&#8230-]

Conference speakers should be more bombastic. :-D

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GoldFishes

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Eliot Spitzer has simply demonstrated once again that those who rise to the top of organizations are very often the most demented, conflicted individuals in any group.
  • Business Risks & Prediction Markets
  • Brand-new BetFair bet-matching logic proves to be very controversial with some event derivative traders.
  • Jimmy Wales accused of editing Wikipedia for donations.
  • What the prediction market experts said on Predictify
  • Are you a MSR addict like Mike Giberson? Have nothing to do this week-end? Wanna trade on a play-money prediction exchange instead of watching cable TV? Wanna win an i-Phone?
  • The secret Google document that Bo Cowgill doesn’t want you to see

How InTrade-TradeSports and BetFair-TradeFair should reach out

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Fred Wilson (a famous NY-based venture capitalist, a &#8220-VC&#8221-):

Really think about if you need that $15,000 a month PR firm. – There are some really good PR firms out there and if you can get one of them to work with your company, then it may be worth considering it. But a mediocre PR firm is not worth it for sure. I encourage our portfolio companies to hire a person inside the company to be an &#8220-evangelist&#8221-. That job includes blogging actively, reading and commenting and linking to other blogs, reaching out to the media and industry analysts and gurus, going to conferences and events, and generally getting the word out. That person can be young and not particularly expensive, certainly nowhere near $15,000 a month. And they have two things that a PR firm cannot offer. They work for you and they represent your company exclusively.

Exactly.

As of today, the BetFair blogging is appalling and works in reverse. The BetFair blog is a digital cockroach that repels the prediction market aficionados. Over the time, the BetFair blog will generate bad publicity for BetFair-TradeFair.

As for InTrade-TradeSports, their little &#8220-bulletin&#8221- is totally uninteresting. It&#8217-s not awful, but it&#8217-s not clever either. It&#8217-s money wasted.

Read the previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Collective Prediction – Combining human and machine intelligence in prediction economies
  • BLEG: Maine data
  • Al Gore is off his rocket, going thru the roof.
  • Enterprise Prediction Markets … Without Office Politics
  • Meet bettor/trader Harry Findlay.
  • Uh oh.
  • 3 fundamental aspects that will determine the success of a company

Why Midas Oracle (and not TV news shows or print newspapers) will dominate the future.

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No GravatarLizard

Henry Blodget:

We still occasionally encounter people who argue that physical newspapers and TV news shows have a vital roll to play in the dissemination of news. These folks usually work for physical newspapers and TV networks, of course. [&#8230-]

Ha! ha! ha! :-D

48% said their primary source of news is the Internet (up 20% from only a year ago).
86% of Americans regard web sites as an important source of news.
36% regard &#8220-blogs&#8221- as an important source of news.
87% of Americans think &#8220-professional journalism&#8221- will remain vitally important.
77% think &#8220-citizen journalism&#8221- will be important
59% think &#8220-blogs&#8221- will be important.

More at Zogby.

BetFair-TradeFair, Betdaq, TradeSports-InTrade, MatchBook, NewsFutures, HSX, et al., should begin to take prediction market blogs seriously.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Red Herring’s list of the top 100 North-American high-tech startups includes Inkling Markets —but not NewsFutures, Consensus Point, or Xpree.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf explains the prediction markets to the countryland people.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.
  • Time magazine interview the 2 BetFair-Tradefair co-founders, and not a single time do they pronounce the magic words, “prediction markets”.
  • One Deep Throat told me that this VC firm might have been connected with the Irish prediction exchange, at inception.
  • BetFair Rapid = BetFair’s standalone, local, PC-based, order-entry software for prediction markets
  • Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

28 Ways to Make Money with Your Blog

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No GravatarBlogging For Dollars

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Robin Hanson wants to rule the world —just as CEOs and heads of states do for a living.
  • Predictify got funded… Great for those who will be hired… But is it a good thing, overall?
  • Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.
  • TradeSports-InTrade — Check Deposits
  • BetFair Australia fought for free trade across Australian state boundaries… and won.

In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times Web site.

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The blogs won the bet.

In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times&#8217- Web site.

The bet has been expired on the &#8220-YES&#8221- side. Dave Winer (representing the bloggers) won &#8212-and Martin Nisenholtz (representing the New York Times &#8212-at the time, in 2002) lost.

Long Bet 2

We decided that a weblog had to be something that would have been recognized as a blog in [2002]. This includes ad supported blogs and commercial blogs like those of the NY Times. While the bettors argument in this case discusses why non-commercial content will beat out commercial content, Winer never provides a definition of a weblog. As it turns out, including major news source blogs like those of the NY Times or sources like Wikipedia do not affect the ultimate outcome in the case of this bet, but they certainly could have.

Hummm&#8230- How come Long Bets could have let people register a not-so-well-defined bet? Long Bets does not seem to be a serious organization to me.

As for what it all means: The blogging software packages are better content management systems than the other, older CMS packages. The blogging software and their specific usage (free access, content parcelisation, dates and keywords inserted in the URLs, peer linking, open comments, etc.) fit better in the Google super system.

Psstt&#8230- One idea for the prediction exchanges like NewsFutures or InTrade would be to open prediction markets on Long Bets topics just weeks before the expiration dates. The event derivative contracts would say that the expiry judge is Long Bets. Emile Servan-Schreiber and Michael Giberson, any thought? :-D

External Link: TechCrunch on what is a blog.

Journalism Failures – Big Time

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&#8212-

– In February 2001, Fortune magazine named ENRON the &#8220-most innovative company&#8221-.

– In October 2007, Robin Hanson, on the Overcoming Bias blog, re-published the falsehood that James Surowiecki (and 3 other book authors in their respective book) made a mistake about Francis Galton in his book, The Wisdom Of Crowds.

– In January 2008, the &#8220-BetFair Prof&#8221- (Leighton Vaughan-Williams) claimed, on the BetFair blog, that the &#8220-betting markets&#8221- foresaw the Republican race in the Michigan primary.

– In January 2008, Risk magazine named SOCIETE GENERALE (recently busted by one of its traders, which lead to a loss of 7.2 billion dollars) the &#8220-equity derivatives house of the year&#8221-.

&#8212-

TAKEAWAY: Either by complete incompetence or by lack of investigation means, journalism is not up to its lofty goal &#8212-telling the truth to people.

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Risk magazine

(Via Marc Andreessen.)

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Jerome Kerviel, soon to be named &#8220-person of the year&#8221- by Risk magazine? :-D

Jerome Kerviel

&#8212-

Societe Generale Logo

Societe General Tower in Paris

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

The answer to any anti-prediction market backlash is quality, impartial, exchange-independent, science-based, diligent, pro-PM blogging.

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No GravatarIs John Delaney the greatest psychic of all times (past, present, and future)?

Deep Throat is very impressed by how accurate the InTrade-TradeSports CEO&#8217-s 2005 prediction turned out to be. According to Deep Throat, the great Irish oracle &#8220-accurately predicted back in early 2005 in a PM conference in NY that someday the markets will make a horribly wrong prediction and that the [prediction market] industry will take a lot of s**t for it.&#8221-

Hummm&#8230-.

Deep Throat is easily impressed. What about the prediction below, then:

  • One of these days, a powerful hurricane will land in one of the southern states, and make billions of dollars in damage.

Vague and obvious predictions are of little help, here. An interesting thought to have, collectively, is how to prepare well in advance to counter such a backlash &#8212-as it is sure to happen again in the coming years. Due to the readers&#8217- new behavior (using the Web to get their info), the conversational aspect of the Web (comments, bloggers responding to their peers), and the velocity of the bloggers (tempests in tea cups spread over one or two days, and then the bloggers move on), the answer is quality, impartial, exchange-independent, science-based, diligent, pro-PM blogging.

You will note that InTrade-TradeSports, BetFair, NewsFutures, and the other PM firms, are completely absent from the dialogue between anti and pro PMs. The BetFair blog has not published anything about the New Hampshire fiasco, and the InTrade bulletin has only put in writing, on a post, the post-NH market-generated probabilities &#8212-without adding any bit of analysis. Totally pointless and useless corporate publications.

As for me, I have worked hard to put our group blog, Midas Oracle, on the blogging scene. I will further this endeavor and announce new initiatives in the future &#8212-if I am able to do so.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • NUCLEAR SCANDAL: HubDub allow their traders to bet on celebrities’ death.
  • APRIL FOOL’S DAY: This year, again, CNET makes fun of the wisdom of crowds.
  • Play-money prediction exchange HubDub is a phenomenal success.
  • BetFair Australia’s spin doctor tells all about their payments to the horse race industry.
  • Meet Jeffrey Ma (at right on the photo), the ProTrade co-founder, and whose gambling life is the basis of the upcoming movie, 21.