Practicing golf in ones backyard

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The video.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Psstt… Spot that comment, on Google News, about… “bellwethers”… from a political scientist.
  • INSIDER’s STORY: The insightful strategic business report about The Evil Empire that Henry Berg does not want you to see
  • Prediction markets are about lowering transaction costs. That’s how sports come in.
  • The birth certificate of the next president of the United States of America –maybe
  • The marketing association between BetFair and TOTE Tasmania works better than expected.
  • The term “event markets” sucks —and the uncritical thinkers using this crappy term suck too.
  • CLIMBING HIS WAY TO THE TOP: Erik Snowberg is now Assistant Professor of Economics and Political Science at California Institute of Technology.

Oscars 2007 – Hollywood Stock Exchange – Bingo!

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HSX Amy Lamare:

Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX.com) Traders correctly picked 7 out of 8 Top Category Oscar Winners to continue its stellar record.
Los Angeles, California, February 26, 2007 –

Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), announced a spectacular 88% success rate for picking this year&#8217-s Oscar winners. The world&#8217-s longest continuously operating commercial prediction market and popular online game once again proved the accuracy of virtual stock markets.

This year Traders hit 7 of 8 in predicting the winners in the top categories. Traders scored a perfect 100% in the Lead Acting, Directing, Writing and Best Picture fields continuing their outstanding trend in picking nominees and Award winners. Last year HSX Traders also hit the 7 out of 8 mark, and the year prior a perfect 8 out of 8 victory. This brings HSX&#8217-s three year cumulative average to 92%.

This year HSX added a fun feature to our Awards Options. Best Feature Animation was not a part of our NominOption® series, but debuted during the Awards Options. Traders were given the chance to predict which of the three nominated animated films would win Oscar gold. They went with the popular Cars, which was edged out last night by Happy Feet.

&#8220-When it comes to movies, the collective wisdom of Hollywood Stock Exchange traders is unmatched&#8221-, said Alex Costakis, Managing Director. &#8220-HSX Traders are savvy, entertainment consumers, with a keen eye for not only predicting Oscar winners, but also for estimating how well a movie will do in box office throughout the year. Think of it as a virtual focus group. The Hollywood Stock Exchange is a proven prediction market technology that empowers individuals to influence Hollywood by making their opinions known by actively participating in this dynamic trading environment&#8221-.

Since its establishment in 1996, HSX has registered over 1.6 million users. HSX offers consumers the opportunity to buy and sell virtual shares of films and actors. HSX also offers unique Trading opportunities surrounding special Award events and consistently beats most polls and industry pundits.

HSX – Oscars Nominations Prediction Markets – Accuracy

Oscars 2007 – TradeSports-InTrade – Bingo!

– Oscars 2007 – Hollywood Stock Exchange – Bingo!

– Debunking HSX Alex Costakis’ conspiracy theory

– Hollywood Stock Exchange’s Alex Costakis makes historical mistake, TOO.

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Congrats to the two HSX co-founders (Max Keiser and Michael Burns) and congrats to the current managers (Alex Costakis and Amy Lamare), and all the other people at HSX. :)

One suggestion to Amy Lamare and the other people managing the HSX site: Why don&#8217-t you publish the entirety of your interesting spin output in your site feed (a.k.a. RSS feed)? Alex Costakis complained about ABC7 and their supposed flawed reporting. Well, since you have a large number of registered users, maybe you could inform them directly about the HSX performance for the 2007 Oscars. I&#8217-m a subscriber of the HSX site feed, and I haven&#8217-t seen your P.R. output there, yet. And why not a link to this P.R. output from the HSX frontpage?

If you google the sentence, &#8220-The Press release is dead&#8221- (with the quotes), you&#8217-ll find interesting ideas and suggestions pertaining to internet marketing.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • A second look at HedgeStreet’s comment to the CFTC about “event markets”
  • Since YooPick opened their door, Midas Oracle has been getting, daily, 2 or 3 dozens referrals from FaceBook.
  • US presidential hopeful John McCain hates the Midas Oracle bloggers.
  • If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.
  • THE CFTC’s SECRET AGENDA —UNVEILED.
  • “Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.”
  • Meet professor Thomas W. Malone (on the right), from the MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence.

Technology Prizes & Prediction Markets

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ABC7 Futures Market: Will the $25 million dollar reward for developing something that will extract greenhouse gases be handed out in the next 5 years?

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Virgin Earth Challenge:

The Virgin Earth Challenge is a prize of $25m for whoever can demonstrate to the judges&#8217- satisfaction a commercially viable design which results in the removal of anthropogenic, atmospheric greenhouse gases so as to contribute materially to the stability of Earth’s climate. […]

The purpose of the Virgin Earth Challenge is to encourage the development of commercially viable new technology, processes and methods to remove anthropogenic greenhouse gases from the atmosphere to improve the stability of the Earth’s climate.

Entrants must submit a commercially viable design (the “Design”) to achieve the net removal of significant volumes of anthropogenic, atmospheric greenhouse gases each year for at least 10 years without countervailing harmful effects (the “Removal Target”). The removal achieved by the Design must have long term benefits (measured over say 1,000 years) and must contribute materially to the stability of the Earth’s climate.

The prize fund will be awarded to (or shared amongst) any entrants whose Design (in the opinion of the judges) achieves or appears capable of achieving the Removal Target and other criteria set out in paragraph 7 and which in the opinion of the judges makes an outstanding contribution by way of innovation in the fields of engineering or the other physical technologies or in the application of the physical sciences, which is or will be for the benefit of the Earth’s climate. […]

Richard Branson:

History has shown that Technology Prizes have been invaluable in encouraging technological advancements and innovation in many, many areas of science and industry. From the very first recorded prize offered by the British government in 1714, offering three financial incentives to the inventor who developed a device capable of measuring longitude within a given degree of accuracy. The Prize, which has been immortalised in the book Longitude, was won by John Harrison, a self-educated clock maker. Harrison was awarded ?20,000 in 1773 for devising an accurate and durable chronometer.

But prizes were not just the domain of the British- in the 18th Century the French also used Prizes as an incentive to fuel innovation. In 1775 a 100,000 franc prize was offered to the individual who could produce an artificial form of alkali – the wining of this prize was to form the basis of the French chemical industry. Today, vacuum packed food in our fridges and cupboards is nothing remarkable, but it may surprise some to know that it was actually a Prize offered by Napoleon in 1810 which led to Nicolas Appert coming up with a method of vacuum packing cooked food in glass bottles – it took him 15 years of experiments but in the end won him 12,000 francs!

It wasn’t long before newspapers and private sector companies became involved in setting up Prizes to encourage development in many areas. The American automobile industry was encouraged to grow through inducements to win prizes by competing in races set up by newspapers such as the Chicago Tribune in the late 19 th Century. Aviation and the development of long distance flying were greatly encouraged by similar prizes to those offered in America for the fledgling automobile industry. The Daily Mail prize for example, for the first flight across the Channel, was won by Louis Bleriot in 1909- and ten years later, Alcock and Brown won the Mail prize for crossing the Atlantic. Lindebergh was competing for a prize when he flew in the Spirit of St Louis, non-stop from New York to Paris in 1927. The Spitfire was the result of the Schneider trophy, which was a series of prizes for technological development.

The most recent technological Prize was awarded in the area of space travel, and is one that I have come to know very well – the Ansari X Prize – a $10 million dollar Prize set up by Peter Diamandis and funded by the Ansari family. The Ansari X Prize was won in 2004 by Paul Allen, Burt Rutan and Scaled Composites when they successfully flew SpaceShipOne to space and back twice within two weeks. The technological feat of SpaceShipOne resulted in the Virgin Group licensing that technology to build five space ships and two White Knight carrier crafts and has given birth to a commercially viable space tourism industry for the future. Using the latest technology in hybrid rocket motors and next generation turbo fan engines SS2 and WK2 will be environmentally benign.

Previous: You Want Innovation? Offer a Prize –not a Grant. + Stiglitz on using Prizes to Stimulate Innovation

FINALLY, THE HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE ACKNOWLEDGES ITS TWO FOUNDERS, MAX KEISER AND MICHAEL BURNS.

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In my previous story, I regretted that the names of the two HSX founders (Max Keiser and Michael Burns) were not clearly spelled out on the HSX website. Well, here&#8217-s from HSX&#8217-s Alex Costakis:

I just saw your post about HSX nomination forecast accuracy. Chris, good one. But first I think the congratulations really should be directed to our traders. It&#8217-s their collective wisdom that generates our predictions. HSX is the facilitator, they are the brain power. And, beyond that, your point is well taken. The visionary founders of this innovative website should be listed. We will correct that. Happy Oscar Night.

FANTASTIC. We should reward entrepreneurs for wealth and job creation.

Previous: HSX – Oscars Nominations Prediction Markets – Accuracy + Hollywood Stock Exchange’s Alex Costakis makes historical mistake, TOO.

Second E-mail to InTrade-TradeSports

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Dear Dan,

Its a shame that TS/Intrade needs to use this split up to hide behind as a reason to not solve the issues of management incompetence. As I read thru your email, I laughed to myself many times as to how your company takes a defensive stance on the issues, rather than addressing them to make the user have a more friendly experience. While I may not be 100% correct in all my opinions either, the people on my email forward list above generally agree with my opinions. If you take the time to look at some of the names on that list, you will see that it consists of millions of lots traded, and other users who have attempted to contact you regarding issues.

Even though your responses are short, and basically just repetition of some generic line I can find somewhere in website rules, I will take the time to respond to them.

1) Early closing of games. SMC/USF was not the first time. Like I said to you, review the email chain between myself and live help. It needs to be explained to them on a weekly basis for the Big Monday college basketball games, or ANY game that runs late. You create the featured game schedule, so if you have a game that starts at midnight EST, I would think you would have enough common senses to set the proper exchange closing time.

You say you do not have a policy of closing early to generate more fees. When in actuality this is a blatant lie. The pause button had NEVER been used like it is now. Your new fee structure has created a benefit to cover all in game positions at games end. Covering of these positions is a loss of revenue for your company. Many, many times events are paused early. Before the new fee structure, I had never (in 7 months) seen you pause an over/under for a game with 5 minutes to go. Now it happens all the time. If the over is achieved while the game is still going on, it gets paused to save a few cents. However, you dont pause a golfer in an event who has completed his round and is scored behind another golfer who has completed a round. But don&#8217-t you see, TEN created this. Your fee schedule is wrong. Bottom line. Fees should be structured so there is no benefit for a winner to have to cover a position to save money, and for your employees to be forced to pause a game with time remaining on the clock.

I was unable to get help because when an issue arises during your PEAK hours, no one is there to help. You are the only website who has no real &#8216-live&#8217- help available during peak hours. One person to serve the 150 people or so logged in at am EST is not suitable. Email, and Internet &#8216-live&#8217- help that never comes online to help is not practical in my opinion.

You noted from my email my fees. Maybe you should review, I traded 508 total lots in that game, and expired (with no other choice but to expire them) 244. I was short 132, covered my position by buying 132, then went long 244. $24.40 was my forced expiry fee because you did not give me a chance to trade out of my position during the last 1:00 of clock time and 5 minutes of elapsed time. So $9 in fees in that game is impossible. Once again TEN gets on the defensive. You should willingly refund all fees in that game- in game, expiry, market makers, etc. You gave us no chance to trade in the only time during the second half where the game was close. I showed you my desire to cover by my trades on another website. So my expiry fee would have been non existent. The event traded 1500 lots at most? Is that few dollars really that important to TEN? Doing the right thing should be what is important. It should be a policy that if TEN pauses early or closes, its a fee free event. But you are not user friendly. Im still awaiting my refund, as are other STM/USF traders.

2) Your new fee structure – You are correct it&#8217-s not the only reason why volume is suffering. No new deposit methods, while other sites have added many, Market makers leaving events, etc., etc., Do I need to review them again?

You say trading at the extremes is desirable only for avoiding fees? Do you realize what your saying? Trading at 97 my return is now .17, while it used to be .23. Do you realize what a difference that is? It used to be great to be able to take on someone else&#8217-s low risk in an almost decided event and make some money doing so. Now you have made that a lot less desirable.

And yes, avoiding fees is the pitfall of the structure you created.

Interesting that a high volume discount is now being considered with a few days left for TEN as a whole.

3) I have also always been available to my staff members in my business via cell phone. But I always had people in each of my store locations who were authorized to make a decision. During your PEAK volume times, you have no management. Defend your position all your like, but it makes no sense at all. Overstaff during low volume times, skeleton crew when your site is making its most revenue. Great business decision.

4) Grading decisionsHaste, and incompetence. In order to pause a game at :00 like you do, someone must be watching. When the score differs from your &#8217-source&#8217-, to what they see, wouldn&#8217-t it be worth an extra minute or two to find out?

5) Financial contract grading – Intrade just has no desire to grade the contract fairly. The information is out there. Your grading is wrong, and at some point it will come back to bite you. You cannot pause a contract at a specified ending point xx:00:00. Then grade it based on data some random number of seconds later while no one can trade on that data. Maybe your new management should think about the logic of that. We all know what can happen in a few seconds.

6) Market makers – I linked you to conversations with market makers where they openly say there are disagreements with TEN. But everything has changed from when I started here a year ago, and when some of the long time traders in my forward list started here. MMers now leave events during the game, they reduce their size in game by sometimes up to 75%, they change their in game spreads. You are looking to have fair and accurate markets? Well, they don&#8217-t exist here.

I hope you feel I represented your email fairly, ideally, and intact like you seemed concerned that I wouldn&#8217-t. My goal here was not to make you look bad, but to make you understand what its like on the other side of the computer screen. And that is obviously a position no one at TEN has every taken the time to view their business structure from. Maybe you feel everything works great, but from the support of my ideas in many forums by huge volume traders, not just the TEN forum, things are not running smoothly from our perspective.

I am aware of the split. I honestly feel bad for whichever company is keeping the current management. Hopefully, whichever site gets the new management- they are more open to suggestions that would benefit customer satisfaction and corporate bottom line. The current management does not seem to have the desire to create the industry leader that is so often referred to in statements from management. When your users/customers call you the industry leader, only then will it be reality.

Sincerely,
Todd Griepenburg

Previous: A Big Trader’s Open Letter to TradeSports-InTrade

Next: Third E-mail to InTrade-TradeSports + InTrade-TradeSports to Todd Griepenburg: GO TO HELL.

Dan Laffan to Todd: #1 – #2

Third E-mail to InTrade-TradeSports

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Dan,

As you can see, I have greatly cut back my trading, as have many others. My desire is not to close my account. My dissatisfaction, as you label it, is not as immense as you call it. I do not believe anywhere in any of my emails I expressed that I would like to close my account. My goal was to help you realize what the perception from a high volume trader is.

If your final resolution to me is to suggest that I close my account, you are clearly sending a message to all as to how your company will continue to operate.

Good luck to you and the entire TEN with your company reorganization.

Todd

PS. It was great to see that the exchange closing time was changed to 3am last night from 2am, even though there were no late events. Maybe I&#8217-m not all wrong, and what a simple fix that would have been weeks ago&#8230-

Previous: A Big Trader’s Open Letter to TradeSports-InTrade + Second E-mail to InTrade-TradeSports

Next: InTrade-TradeSports to Todd Griepenburg: GO TO HELL.

Dan Laffan to Todd: #1 – #2

XM-Sirius merger derivative – One transaction, only, so far

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XM-Sirius merger contract at TradeSports-Intrade – One single trade, only, so far. :(

Via the intrepid Fabian John of the 1st Tick forum, the New York Times:

Still, it seems as if Mr. Karmazin may be paying a premium to do the deal now so that it can be rushed through the regulatory maze while the Bush administration is still in power. Many partners in mergers of equals wait around — often for years — until their stocks align. Mr. Karmazin disputes that view, contending that he wants a deal as soon as possible so that the savings can start. His view is that there “is no regulatory window.” In fact, he believes that the longer the companies, both now money losers, wait to merge, the better their chances would be in Washington. That’s because new technologies will continue to emerge that may prove to be competitive with satellite radio.

Previous: XM-Sirius merger + Sirius &amp- XM prediction markets

Related: Satellite Radio prediction market at Yahoo! Buzz Game

HSX – Oscars Nominations Prediction Markets – Accuracy

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HSX:

2007 – 82%
2006 – 87.5%
2005 – 82.5%
2004 – 74.4%
2003 – 82.5%
2002 – 87.5%
2001 – 84.6%
2000 – 79.5%
1999 – 84.2%

Congrats to Max Keiser and Michael Burns.

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Heu, sorry, I lost it.

You should have read: &#8220-Congrats to Alex Costakis.&#8221-

Previous: Hollywood Stock Exchange’s Alex Costakis makes historical mistake, TOO.

Addendum: I regretted that the names of the two HSX founders (Max Keiser and Michael Burns) were not clearly spelled out on the HSX website. Well, here&#8217-s from HSX&#8217-s Alex Costakis:

I just saw your post about HSX nomination forecast accuracy. Chris, good one. But first I think the congratulations really should be directed to our traders. It&#8217-s their collective wisdom that generates our predictions. HSX is the facilitator, they are the brain power. And, beyond that, your point is well taken. The visionary founders of this innovative website should be listed. We will correct that. Happy Oscar Night.

FANTASTIC. We should reward entrepreneurs for wealth and job creation.

Previous: Hollywood Stock Exchange’s Alex Costakis makes historical mistake, TOO.