Wikipedia now accounts for a staggering one out of every 200 page views on the entire Internet.

No GravatarNew York Times:

[&#8230-] Among the 4.6 million registered English-language users are about 1,200 administrators, whose “admin” status carries a few extra technical powers, most notably the power to block other users from the site, either temporarily or permanently. Those nominated for adminship must answer an initial series of five questions, after which other users have seven days to register their approval or disapproval. Above the admin level are the cheekily named “bureaucrats,” who are empowered to appoint the admins and will do so if they deem a user consensus has been reached (the magic number is somewhere around 70 percent approval). There is also a level above the bureaucrats, called stewards, of whom there are only about 30, appointed by the seven-person Wikimedia Foundation board of directors. [&#8230-]

But there is also something uniquely empowering — for better or for worse — about Wikipedia, in that there is no real organizational ladder to climb: since everyone contributes behind screen names (which may or may not match their real ones), questions of age, appearance, experience and so forth don’t color the discussion. The only way to achieve a degree of authority in the world of Wikipedia is to show sufficient devotion to it, and that can happen in relatively short order. [&#8230-]

The presentational difference is that Wikipedia’s version of events comes in the form of one constantly rewritten, constantly updated, summary article, rather than a chronological series of articles, each reflecting new developments, as newspapers and even most news sites do. But much more significant than that, no Wikipedia article contains any attempt at actual reporting — in fact, original research is forbidden. [&#8230-] &#8220-[] An encyclopedia is the condensation of received wisdom.&#8221- [&#8230-] On a big news day, Wikipedia functions like a massive, cooperative blog — except that where most blogs’ function is to sieve news accounts through the filter of strong opinion, Wikipedia’s goal is the opposite: it strives to filter all the opinion out of it. [&#8230-]

Great article on Wikipedia.

I have developed Midas Oracle .ORG as a group blog (&#8221-a chronological series of articles, each reflecting new developments&#8221-), and I&#8217-m going to develop Midas Oracle .NET as a wiki blog (a set of &#8220-constantly rewritten, constantly updated, summary&#8221- articles).

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • Red Herring’s list of the top 100 North-American high-tech startups includes Inkling Markets —but not NewsFutures, Consensus Point, or Xpree.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf explains the prediction markets to the countryland people.
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset.
  • Time magazine interview the 2 BetFair-Tradefair co-founders, and not a single time do they pronounce the magic words, “prediction markets”.
  • One Deep Throat told me that this VC firm might have been connected with the Irish prediction exchange, at inception.
  • BetFair Rapid = BetFair’s standalone, local, PC-based, order-entry software for prediction markets
  • Michael Moore tells the Democratic people to go Barack Obama in Pennsylvania (a two-tier state), but the polls and the prediction markets tell us that that won’t do the trick.

Australian economist Justin Wolfers in utter disbelief, upon hearing about the demise of ECONOMIC DERIVATIVES.

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A dog in utter disbelief

Previous: ECONOMIC DERIVATIVES is dead. + Justin Wolfers on Economic Derivatives

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
  • Science
  • Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
  • Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?
  • “Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.”
  • Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition
  • How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally

Short on Pablo Picasso, Long on Vincent Van Gogh??

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The Art Trading Fund is the first regulated fine art hedge fund.

We are an art trading hedge fund focused on 3 to 12 month returns. The Fund buys and sells art via its global network of dealers, renowned artists, auction houses and galleries. Returns are maximised through geographical price arbitrage and by removing market inefficiencies. The Fund sources art from a bank of vendors and sells through the network’s pool of highly liquid buyers. Using an objective investment process the Fund essentially monetises the substantial margins of a gallery and art dealing business – without the high fixed cost base of either – and passes that ‘alpha’ on to the end investor. The investment managers add additional value through asset allocation and via a synthetic hedge that provides downside protection.

Hey&#8230- speaking of art&#8230- anyone for art business prediction markets??

UPDATE: Rod&#8230-

About a month ago, The Economist wrote an article about this fund: Painting by numbers. In my opinion, the most interesting aspect about investing in art is that nobody really knows what a given work of art is worth. Unlike commodities such as platinum, gold or silver, works or art are highly differentiated assets, and therefore it’s hard to put a price tag on them. Ultimately, the (market) value of a painting or a sculpture is whatever the highest bidder is willing to pay for it.

Whether the hedge fund invests in startups, movies or art pieces, the basic idea is that the profits on the winners should tower the bath they take on the losers.

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 15 days. We have 15 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • The CFTC is going to close the comments in 16 days. We have 16 days left to convince the CFTC to accept FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges, and counter the evil petition organized by the American Enterprise Institute (which has on its payroll Paul Wolfowitz, the bright masterminder of the Iraq war).
  • Brand-new scientific report certifies that starting off the Large Hadron Collider is NOT going to destroy the Earth. Glad to hear that. It means that any bets entertained on the LHC issue will be able to be resolved and winnings to be collected in the end.
  • Small Business = GOOD — Big Business = BAD
  • The letter David Pennock will never send out —well, we hope.
  • Monitor the web traffic of TradeSports.com, InTrade.com, BetFair.com, Betdaq.com, NewsFutures.com, HubDub.com, etc. —thanks to Google Trends.
  • Here’s the way to promote innovation for entry-order and analysis software packages —separate the 2 functions.

Veteran Republican Vic Gold describes VP Dick Cheney as a MEGA-MANIACAL PARANOID whose secret empire within the government has captured the George W. Bush presidency and helped bring the Republican Party to the brink of ruin.

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Eleanor Clift: A longtime confidant of the Bush and Cheney families describes the dangerous influence of the vice president.

Vic Gold&#8217-s book: Invasion of the Party Snatchers: How the Holy-Rollers and the Neo-Cons Destroyed the GOP

Washington Post&#8217-s dossier on VP Dick Cheney

Part 1: Working in the Background
A master of bureaucracy and detail, Cheney exerts most of his influence out of public view.
Part 2: Wars and Interrogations
Convinced that the &#8220-war on terror&#8221- required &#8220-robust interrogations&#8221- of captured suspects, Dick Cheney pressed the Bush administration to carve out exceptions to the Geneva Conventions.
Sidebar: Cheney on Presidential Power
Part 3: Dominating Budget Decisions
Working behind the scenes, Dick Cheney has made himself the dominant voice on tax and spending policy, outmaneuvering rivals for the president&#8217-s ear.
Sidebar: Expanding Authority for No. 2 Spot
Sidebar: Taking on the Supreme Court Case
Part 4: Environmental Policy
Dick Cheney steered some of the Bush administration&#8217-s most important environmental decisions &#8212- easing air pollution controls, opening public parks to snowmobiles and diverting river water from threatened salmon.
Sidebar: Maintaining Connections

Vice President Cheney, standing behind the president&#8217-s desk during a July 2003 meeting, circumvented Secretary of State Colin L. Powell in 2001 on the military commissions order:

Dick Cheney

Credit: Washington Post

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JFK got killed, but Dick Cheney gets to live.

Cockroach

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Dick Cheney Resignation

Price for Dick Cheney Resignation at intrade.com
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Dick Cheney will resign as VP before his 2nd term is up.


© NewsFutures

&#8212-

Static charts (for the blog archives, since the dynamic ones above will disappear after their expiry):

Dick Cheney Resignation

InTrade Dick Cheney June 2007

Dick Cheney will resign as VP before his 2nd term is up.

Dick Cheney NewsFutures June 2007

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets
  • Science
  • Why did prediction markets do well in the pre-polling era, professor Strumpf?
  • Mozilla FireFox users, do you have trouble downloading academic papers (as PDF files) from SSRN?
  • “Impact Matrix. Used to collect and gauge the likelihood and business impact of various events in the very long term.”
  • Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition
  • How to run enterprise prediction markets… legally

AUSTRALIA RULES: Evan Kaldor to redefine the meaning of entrepreneurship + BetFair Australia in Tasmania set to conquer Asia + Justin Wolfers near the top of the field of prediction markets + Rupert Murdoch driving the bus in the US media land

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Australia

Previous blog posts by Chris F. Masse:

  • 48 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 52 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
  • The John Edwards Non-Affair gives us an opportunity to look deep into the caldron of the wisdom of crowds.
  • We Plug This British Betting Blog On Midas Oracle Because We Like Its Name.
  • 24 hours after the launch of the “Prediction Markets” group at LinkedIn, we have already 39 members —both prediction market luminaries and simple people (trading the event derivatives or collecting the market-generated probabilities).
  • That was ubber world star Barack Obama in Berlin, during his July 2008 speech at the Victory Column. Spot all the digital cameras pointing to the socialist Messiah. Snatching something to bring at home — “see, I was there”.
  • If you want your affiliation with the “Prediction Markets” group to appear on your LinkedIn profile, then click on “Edit Public Profile Settings”, and check the “Groups” option.
  • If you want to connect with InTrade CEO John Delaney on LinkedIn…

GREEK PREDICTION MARKET RESEARCHER GEORGE TZIRALIS HAS FALLEN TO THE DARK SIDE OF THE FORCE.

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HE HAS JUST BOUGHT AN APPLE MACINTOSH LAPTOP, A &#8220-MACBOOK&#8221-.

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Mike Linksvayer, a Macintosh hater, will strongly disapprove, I&#8217-m sure. :)

Apple’s penetration of the geek market over the last five years or so has bugged me … for that long.

And here&#8217-s what Mike Linksvayer, answered to Tyler Cowen&#8217-s question, &#8220-What is your most absurd view?”&#8221-:

Nearly every user interface and product from Apple has been aesthetically and functionally ugly, from the orginal MacOS to iTunes. I don’t think I can blame Steve Jobs, as NextStep was wonderful. (Yes, I know OS X is derived from NextStep. They ruined it.)

TradeSports Cost of Service Charts

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This is a comparison of the new TS fees versus the old fees. It&#8217-s meant to
give a rough idea of where the cost has gone up or down. For simplicity, it
assumes buy-and-hold in all cases, and ignores the unfortunately killed
no-fees-pre-game deal. Still, rough as this is, it should give a sense of
how you&#8217-ll be affected given your trading style, and it may give you ideas
of how to change your style to take advantage.

I hope this was helpful to some of you.
Good luck, trade smart and maximize your advantage!

Blogs are taking over the other Web-based publications.

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Tech Crunch&#8217-s Mike Arrington (who is furious at a CNET writer):

Most of the popular blogs, all of which started out as one-person shops, have now hired separate sales staff to handle sales. We have, Om has, etc. Hell, that’s the main reason we are working with FM Publishing, so that we don’t have to talk to advertisers directly. They turned out to be the wrong choice – throwing us under a bus as soon as the found it convenient, but it doesn’t change our position on the matter. We’re a small operation, we work 24 hours a day to break stories and write interesting content, and we’re trying to earn enough money to keep these things growing. Something Cooper would never understand. [CNET’s Charles Cooper is] a paid journalist who has the luxury of sitting back and opining on others, even when he has no idea what he’s talking about. It’s what too many mainstream media journalists do – write about things they don’t know and don’t care about. And that’s why blogs are stealing their page views at an alarming rate. Based on my estimates, the average A-List blogger generates 10x the page views that the average journalist does. Why? Because we’re running our own businesses, because we support each other with linking, and because we care, deeply, about what we are writing about.

Mike Arrington says, in another paragraph, that he doesn&#8217-t care about being linked to by CNET News (a news website devoted to the business of the information technology) because it generates small traffic compared to what some IT bloggers (like Om) can deliver. Entirely true. Midas Oracle was linked to by CNET News in May 2007, and we received a fistful of visitors only, compared to thousands of people coming from the economics blog Marginal Revolution.

NEXT: Google Search, the New York Times, and the blogs

YES, Harry Potter will survive J.K. Rowling’s 7th installment of the saga, The Deathly Hallows

Via Matt Drudge, via EITB 24, a hacker whose pseudonym is “Gabriel” tells you the ending of the book, The Deathly Hallows, yet to be published. He claims to have hacked one of the computers of the publisher. The bottom line is that Harry does not die, it seems.

I have just bought all the NewsFutures “Harry Potter will survive” contracts I could snap at $80. Plus, I was granted 10 pairs of contracts thru this program, and I sold the 10 “no” contracts to some misinformed trader at $20. Here’s my VIP page at NewsFutures. [I previously flip-flopped on this issue. :) ]

Just a short note on the NewsFutures prediction exchange: very usable. Our good doctor EJSS and his employees are detail oriented, and I think that’s the way to go. As I have written 10 times on Midas Oracle, this is about satisfying the sophisticated bettors, not the Joe Six-Packs. The folks at Pop Sci’s PPX should take notice. You know, I am on the receiving end of many youngsters’ claims to be “the next NewsFutures”. Well, my message to them: get up earlier, boys.

Here are all the blog posts and comments written about Harry Potter on Midas Oracle.

If I’m right to trust the hacker “Gabriel” and I win this game, then I’ll publish a victory blog post against Niall O’Connor and Michael Giberson. Niall O’Connor swallowed the William Hill story (All the money was on Harry Potter to die, so they stopped taking bets) like a lake carp swallows a peanut butter doughball. But, that’s too early. Let’s wait and see.

Harry Potter will survive The Deathly Hallows.

© NewsFutures

UPDATE: The sentiment of the majority favors the Niall O’Connor theory that puts William Hill at the receiving end of insider information (”Harry Potter dies”), lately. And the NewsFutures market-generated probability would reflect the (misinformed, on this one) “wisdom of crowds”, which kind of senses that an author for kids will not make the hero die. We’ll see.

UPDATE #2: eWeek.com

milw0rm is a group of politically motivated “hacktivists” whose most famous exploit was penetrating the computers of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) in Bombay, the primary nuclear research facility of India, on June 3, 1998. They have anti-nuclear and pro-peace agendas and, in this case, anti-Harry Potter and pro-Pope Benedict XVI.

UPDATE: The contract of the Harry Potter event derivative at NewsFutures may be flawed.

NEXT: THE FATE OF HARRY POTTER IN J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH BOOK, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS: prediction market vs. bookmaker + NEWSFUTURES JUDGES THAT HARRY POTTER IS STILL ALIVE AT THE END OF J.K. ROWLING’S 7TH NOVEL, THE DEATHLY HALLOWS.