Read the new comments on yesterday’-s thread.
Since the crowd is so wise, would one make money by betting systematically on the InTrade favorites (say, once they reach 50)?
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Yearly Archives: 2008
Is Koleman Strumpf a provocator?
Joke. 
One week later, the debate is still raging under his post.
New comments from David Pennock and Jason Ruspini.
I like when people argue with each other. It generates pageviews. Commenters frenetically download that webpage to see whether their opponents have added something.
WeatherBill C.E.O. David Friedberg hopes to persuade [!?] the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (C.F.T.C.) to change the requirement that currently limits weather derivative traders to accredited investors with a minimum net worth of $1 million.
Hummmmmmmmm…- Quite a bold ambition. I’-m very surprised by his statement. Is he naive?
Via our chief economist Michael Giberson.
CNBC airs an upbeat explainer about InTrades prediction markets.
Via our good friend Jason Ruspini.
CNBC video + CNBC video #2
– Please, put that on YouTube, and then give me the YouTube URL. I’-ll embed the video in another post.
– Who is that guy that they will interview later on, Jason??? [UPDATE: Serge Ravitch]
My observations:
- Quite upbeat. Almost an advertisement for InTrade.
- No mention whatsoever that InTrade is illegal in America.
- On the website, they call InTrade a “-political futures market”-.
- The InTrade critic was Barry Ritholtz. They just showed his blog. He wrote that the trading on InTrade is “-pitifully”- small.
- The first prediction market analyst they want to hear is InTrade CEO John Delaney. The second is professor Justin Wolfers. And that’-s all.
- Steve Forbes asked whether “-this thing”- (InTrade) predicted Joe Biden “-weeks ago”-. The answer is that InTrade predicted Joe Biden some days ago.
- Joe Kerner put an emphasis on liquidity, whereas the emphasis should have been on the market as the mechanism that delivers a collective verdict.
UPDATE: YouTube video (the last part was censored by InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney – PRECISION: the discussion between the journalists and the guest on the TV set was suppressed)
UPDATE: The second CNBC video segment that TradeSports-InTrade CEO John Delaney does not want you to see on YouTube
The second CNBC video on InTrades prediction markets is up and running.
CNBC video + CNBC video #2
In both segments, the appearance of Justin Wolfers is a nuclear disaster. They cut him ultra short. Maybe because of his strong Australian accent, I don’-t know. But the end result is bad. It’-s a pity. Justin Wolfers would have had many interesting things to say.
PS: InTrade people, please, put that on YouTube and tip me when it is done, so I can embed those videos.
UPDATE: YouTube video (the last part was censored by InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney – PRECISION: the discussion between the journalists and the guest on the TV set was suppressed)
UPDATE: The second CNBC video segment that TradeSports-InTrade CEO John Delaney does not want you to see on YouTube
Why didnt you bet with the crowd, then? You could have made a killing at the time when Joe Biden was under 50.
