Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Washington Post

Don’t worry too much about the Dubai World default.

NEWSPAPERS ARE DOOMED: CraigList is killing BOTH the offline Washington Post AND the online Washington Post.

Silicon Alley Insider
The Internet is dismembering everything in little bits. We’re living in a period of intense changes.
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The Dark Side… is Dick Cheney, of course.

I have just watched a great documentary about the US reaction to 9/11. It’s called The Dark Side, and it’s very informative on how Dick Cheney and the neo-cons twisted the US foreign policy to the point of total absurdity. What I found remarkable in this documentary is that it was factual and not opinionated. [...]

Prediction market infiltrations in the media – US vs. UK

Folks, I want to tackle this important issue in this blog post. But first, I will excerpt two news articles from The Economist. The first one was written by their American correspondence, and the second one was written by their UK-based journalists. [Technical Note: Since each of the stories from The Economist is written collectively [...]

The OTHER 2008 political election


BetFair does not cover it yet. Neither does NewsFutures.
Thank God we have inTrade-TradeSports.

Sergei Ivanov to win 2008 Russian Presidential Election

Very few trades, as of today.

Washington Post
Sergei Ivanov – Wikipedia

THE 2007-07-07 LUCKY DAY: Washington Post’s Slate.com links to Eric Zitzewitz’s piece on Midas Oracle.

Tim Harford:
The economists Justin Wolfers and Eric Zitzewitz have pointed out that Hillary Clinton’s chances of becoming president, as predicted by one betting market, InTrade, started to climb dramatically mid-May, topping 40 per cent after months of fluctuating between 20 and 30 per cent. Her odds of winning the Democratic nomination stayed around 50 per [...]

Veteran Republican Vic Gold describes VP Dick Cheney as a MEGA-MANIACAL PARANOID whose secret empire within the government has captured the George W. Bush presidency and helped bring the Republican Party to the brink of ruin.

Eleanor Clift: A longtime confidant of the Bush and Cheney families describes the dangerous influence of the vice president.
Vic Gold’s book: Invasion of the Party Snatchers: How the Holy-Rollers and the Neo-Cons Destroyed the GOP
Washington Post’s dossier on VP Dick Cheney
Part 1: Working in the Background
A master of bureaucracy and detail, Cheney exerts most of [...]

Harry Potter will NOT die? Don’t Bet on It.

Prediction markets work well in some cases and less well in others. The Justin Wolfers and Andrew Leigh article appearing in The Melborne Review states the pertinent point: “attempts to set up markets on topics where there are insiders with substantial information advantages have typically failed” because the presence of highly informed insiders will [...]

In November 2000, the Iowa Electronic Markets declared the AL GORE speculators as the winners of their zero-sum game.

Iowa Electronic Markets:
Release: Nov. 17, 2000
Iowa Electronic Markets name Gore winner in futures payoff
IOWA CITY, Iowa — The presidential election is over, at least in the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM). The IEM has declared Al Gore the popular vote winner over George W. Bush. Because the IEM follows the percentage of the national popular vote, [...]

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