Tag Archives: volatility

The Interdependence of Prices and Gold

Posted on June 26, 2010 by Jason Ruspini

I gave a talk on Thursday night at the New York Investing Club meeting. The basic points: Gold does well when real rates of return are low. Real rates describe the price of gold much better than inflation alone. This … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Finance, Financial Markets, Money, The Global Economy | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

A Note on the Impotence of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

Posted on February 25, 2010 by Jason Ruspini

No one who makes a living trading really cares about EMH, but I’m not sure why failure to predict under EMH is that surprising. Markets do more discounting than predicting. That’s part of the reason why stocks are volatile — … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Economics, Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities, Psychology | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

InTrade’s volatility page is useless.

Posted on August 11, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade’s volatility page will be useful when they show the volumes. High volatility on small volumes is meaningless.

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Robert Shiller: Insurance, hedging, risk management, efficiency, etc.

Posted on April 13, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

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Jason Ruspini est déchainé.

Posted on October 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

He is sur-excited by the Panos Ipeirotis research paper. Modeling Volatility in Prediction Markets, Part I Modeling Volatility in Prediction Markets, Part II Paper: Modeling Volatility in Prediction Markets

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The best research paper of the year 2008

Posted on October 21, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Modeling Volatility in Prediction Markets, Part I Modeling Volatility in Prediction Markets, Part II Paper: Modeling Volatility in Prediction Markets

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , | 13 Comments

Prediction markets tend to be so illiquid, though, that mere activity looks like volatility.

Posted on April 14, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Excellent comment from our national Jason Ruspini. [Conversation started off at Felix Salmon's.] -

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Managed Futures is the one category that consistently benefits from volatility AND has positive expectancy, unlike short-sellers.

Posted on April 13, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Insteresting comment from Jason Ruspini. Jason, the high-end event derivative traders at BetFair (and probably at TradeSports and Betdaq) do benefit from volatility —they would trade thousands of times on one prediction market, back and forth, taking advantage of small … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Trading | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment