Tag Archives: velocity

Prediction markets failed miserably at forecasting accurately the American Idol winner.

Posted on May 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Aggregating information was not enough to predict the future —this time. Our prediction exchanges won’t issue any statement about it: They will keep it under the rug. When their prediction markets succeed, they brag about it in the media. But … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, American Idol, Collective Intelligence, efficiency, InTrade, prediction markets, velocity, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

Vertical Media vs. Prediction Markets vs. Mass Media

Posted on April 27, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Let’s rank institutions according to who has dealt first with the swine flu: Vertical media and local media — starting Tuesday, April 21, 2009 Mass media, news aggregators, and user-created prediction markets (a la HubDub) — starting Friday, April 24, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Prediction Journalism | Tagged Google News Timeline, HubDub, InTrade, local media, mass media, prediction markets, swine flu, velocity, vertical media | 7 Comments

The truth about (enterprise) prediction markets

Posted on April 13, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: [...] In virtually every case, the prediction market forecast is closer to the official HP forecast than it is to the actual outcome. Perhaps these markets are better at forecasting the forecast than they are at forecasting the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Cases, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, Chris F. Masse, Chris F. Masse is a Fraud., Chris Masse, Collective Intelligence, corporate prediction markets, efficiency, enterprise prediction markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), HP, internal prediction markets, Midas Oracle, Paul Hewitt, predicting, prediction market industry, prediction markets, Predictions, private prediction markets, The Truth About Prediction Markets, truth, velocity, wisdom of crowds | 19 Comments

“It is their velocity that we should put to work.”

Posted on February 25, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Remember what the great Chris Masse said? Nate Silver applies the approach to Bobby Jindal. Note that accuracy is out of the picture (since 2012 is far away) —as I said, the velocity argument is impermeable to inaccuracy and backfires. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, efficiency, Nate Silver, prediction markets, The Truth About Prediction Markets, velocity | Leave a comment

Is Panos’s goal the same as the people’s goal?

Posted on February 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, efficiency, prediction markets, velocity | Leave a comment

Celebrating such â€œsuccessesâ€ leads to backfire when the markets end up not being correct.

Posted on February 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

That is true, Panos, but there is absolutely nothing you can do to prevent the non-academic prediction exchanges to brag about “successes” —“we nailed all 50 states”. Note that, by contrast, the efficiency (velocity) argument does not lead to any … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged accuracy, efficiency, inaccuracy, prediction markets, velocity | 2 Comments

Accuracy and Efficiency of Prediction Markets

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

To sum up things… And in other words: The relative accuracy of the prediction markets = epsilon and (quite) controversial. The relative efficiency of the prediction markets versus the mass media (not the vertical media) = big (in complicated situations), … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, efficiency, inaccuracy, mass media, Open Insitute Of Prediction Markets, prediction markets, The Truth About Prediction Markets, velocity, vertical media | Leave a comment

Plus…

Posted on February 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

… the velocity argument will lead to new applications.

Posted in Analysis (Meta) | Tagged accuracy, efficiency, prediction markets, The Truth About Prediction Markets, velocity | Leave a comment

Velocity + Inaccuracy

Posted on February 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

One bit of criticism about my pamphlet (The Truth About Prediction Markets) goes like this: Velocity without accuracy is dumb. That is not true. Let’s imagine, for the sake of the exercise, that Barack Obama does not pick up Kathleen … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, efficiency, prediction markets, The Truth About Prediction Markets, velocity | 9 Comments

Prediction markets didn’t “revolutionize” decision-making —and will never do. However, they are a nice condiment to the classic forecasting toolkit.

Posted on February 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I have spent several hours re-reading the 2004 AEI-Brookings book, “Information Markets” (by which they mean “prediction markets”). It is a collection of un-enlightening research articles —except for the IEM article, which is outstanding, both on the factual and theoretical … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged 2008 US presidential election, accuracy, AEI-Brookings, Bob Hahn, Collective Decision Making, decision making, efficiency, enterprise prediction markets, Information Markets, Paul Tetlock, prediction markets, public prediction markets, Robert Hahn, The Truth About Prediction Markets, velocity | Leave a comment

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