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Tag Archives: usage
Collecting bits and pieces of information, and aggregating it, so we can understand what people know.
Charles Plott has nailed it. – I would lay out this dichotomy: Some of our academics, consultants, and exchange executives have sold the prediction markets as the ultimate forecasting tool —which is true, but people translated that as “this is … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers
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Tagged Alaska, Charles Plott, Collective Intelligence, event derivative markets, event derivatives, hype, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, meta forecasting tools, omniscient tool, prediction markets, Senate, ultimate forecasting tool, usage, USD, wisdom of crowds
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“I try to only follow electoral races in highly digested form” —that is, thru the lens of the political prediction markets.
Excellent formulation by Mike Linksvayer. Tells a lot about the usage of the prediction market probablities, and how we should market them to people. BetFair, InTrade and TradeSports, are you listening? I check prices at Intrade most days, which gives … Continue reading →