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Tag Archives: US primaries
New Hampshire prediction markets screwed up political forecasting in 2008. Will they be right this time? — [CHARTS]
The political prediction markets got the Democratic race wrong in New Hampshire, last time. More here. – New Hampshire – The Democrats – The Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired to 100. – New Hampshire – The Republicans – The … Continue reading →
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice)
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Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, democrats, event derivative markets, event derivatives, events, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds
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1 Comment
Flawed New Hampshire polls = Non-accurate New Hampshire prediction markets
The most comprehensive analysis ever conducted of presidential primary polls: “a handful of methodological missteps and miscalculations combined to undermine the accuracy of predictions about presidential primary winners in New Hampshire and three other states.” Via Mister the Great Research … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
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Tagged 2008 New Hampshire Presidential Primary, 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, Collective Intelligence, democrats, Hillary Clinton, idea futures, indicators, John McCain, New Hampshire, polls, prediction markets, US presidential elections, US primaries, wisdom of crowds
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2 Comments
Nate Silver of FiveThirtYeight.com on “The Interview Show” —recorded November 5th, 2008
Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com on “The Interview Show,” recorded November 5th, 2008: – - Nate Silver on November 3rd, 2008: – Nate Silver on August 21, 2008: -
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics
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Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Barack Obama, FiveThirtYeight, fivethirtyeight.com, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Mark Bazer, models, Nate Silver, Politics, poll aggregation, polls, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, The Interview Show, US elections, US politics, US primaries
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