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Tag Archives: United States Senate
Republican Scott Brown has become the Senator-elect from Massachusetts.
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
Tagged election, elections, InTrade, Martha Coakley, Massachusetts, Nate Silver, Politics, prediction market, prediction markets, Scott Brown, Ted Kennedy, United States Senate, US politics, US Senate
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Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing. —REDUX
Nate Silver: There are many assumptions in this model which may not be valid []. Although I believe that these are generally a fairly well-balanced set of assumptions relative to the universe of possible assumptions (i.e. alternate sets of assumptions … Continue reading
Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing.
6 scenarios United States Senate special election in Massachusetts, 2010
2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: Prediction Markets for the 2008 US Electoral College
ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com). By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen. – - #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References
Tagged 2008 electoral map prediction, 2008 US elections, 2008 US electoral map prediction, 2008 US presidential elections, America, Americans, CNN, David Pennock, electoral college, electoral college markets, electoral map, electoral map prediction, electoral markets, electoral predictions, electoral vote, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Iowa, Lance Fortnow, market data, objective probabilistic predictions, Political Party, Politics, predicted probabilities, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Predictions, President, Prime Minister, probabilistic predictions, real-money prediction markets, Robin Hanson, U.S. House of Representatives, United Kingdom, United States, United States Of America, United States Senate, US elections, US electoral college, US House Of Representatives Elections, US politics, US presidential elections, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party, Yahoo!, Yiling Chen
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2008 US Electoral Map Prediction
- US ELECTORAL MAP: Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College ElectoralMarkets.com – - Via Read & Write Web 2008 Electoral Map (based on InTade) + 2008 Electoral Map (based on polls) – UPDATE: Hal Finney – See our PREDICTIONS … Continue reading
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged 2008 Electoral Map, CNN, David Pennock, electoral college, electoral map, electoral markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hal Finney, InTrade, Iowa, Lance Fortnow, map, Political Party, polls, prediction markets, President, Robin Hanson, U.S. House of Representatives, United States, United States Senate, US electoral college, USD, web links, Will Be Democratic, Winning Party, Yahoo!, Yiling Chen
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A Democratic sweep in Washington DC, in November 2008, will likely lead to the legalization of the real-money prediction markets.
Gambling 911: With the Nevada Caucuses taking place this Saturday, The Las Vegas Sun reports that Democrat Hillary Clinton supports a study to determine if Internet gambling can be fairly regulated so that individuals can safely participate in it and … Continue reading
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Regulations
Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US political elections, 2008 US presidential elections, BetFair, Betting, Democratic candidate, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Gambling, Hillary Clinton, Internet betting, Internet gambling, Internet Gambling Prohibition and Enforcement Act, InTrade, NewsFutures, online betting, online gambling, Politics, prediction markets, President, Republican candidate, The Las Vegas Sun, U.S. House of Representatives, United States, United States Senate, Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006, US elections, US political elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, Washington D.C., Will Be Democratic, Winning Party
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