Tag Archives: United States Senate

Republican Scott Brown has become the Senator-elect from Massachusetts.

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Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing. —REDUX

Nate Silver: There are many assumptions in this model which may not be valid []. Although I believe that these are generally a fairly well-balanced set of assumptions relative to the universe of possible assumptions (i.e. alternate sets of assumptions … Continue reading

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Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing.

6 scenarios United States Senate special election in Massachusetts, 2010

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2008 US ELECTORAL MAP PREDICTION: Prediction Markets for the 2008 US Electoral College

ELECTORAL COLLEGE MARKETS: Probabilistic predictions for the 2008 US presidential elections based on market data from InTrade Ireland —(electoralmarkets.com). By Lance Fortnow, David Pennock, and Yiling Chen. – - #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – A prediction market is a … Continue reading

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2008 US Electoral Map Prediction

- US ELECTORAL MAP: Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College ElectoralMarkets.com – - Via Read & Write Web 2008 Electoral Map (based on InTade) + 2008 Electoral Map (based on polls) – UPDATE: Hal Finney – See our PREDICTIONS … Continue reading

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Hillary Clinton vs. Barack Obama

- Noam Scheiber: 1.) Hillary wins both Ohio and Texas. 2.) Hillary wins Ohio; Obama wins Texas. 3.) Obama wins both Ohio and Texas. I put in bold the most likely scenario, according to InTrade’s prediction markets. – The Democrats … Continue reading

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Counting the Democratic delegates, and courting the Democratic super-delegates (a kind of aristocracy within the so-called Democratic party).

- Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on the advanced indicators … Continue reading

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BARACK OBAMA = NEXT US PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

LIKE HIM OR NOT, THIS IS THE 44th US PRESIDENT, ACCORDING TO THE PREDICTION MARKETS. GET USED TO IT. – - #1. Explainer On Prediction Markets – Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events … Continue reading

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A Democratic sweep in Washington DC, in November 2008, will likely lead to the legalization of the real-money prediction markets.

Gambling 911: With the Nevada Caucuses taking place this Saturday, The Las Vegas Sun reports that Democrat Hillary Clinton supports a study to determine if Internet gambling can be fairly regulated so that individuals can safely participate in it and … Continue reading

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The New Hampshire Hypothesis

Finally, the BetFair blog publishes one interesting post. It was about time. From our usual British suspect, professor Leighton Vaughan-Williams (who was on ABC News lately) —who else. How did everyone get New Hampshire so horribly wrong? These are the … Continue reading

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