Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: truth

The truth about (enterprise) prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 13, 2009 — 19 Comments

Paul Hewitt:
[...] In virtually every case, the prediction market forecast is closer to the official HP forecast than it is to the actual outcome. Perhaps these markets are better at forecasting the forecast than they are at forecasting the outcome! Looking further into the results, while most of the predictions have a smaller error than [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Cases, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The truth about prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on February 14, 2009 — 59 Comments

Come to the wonderful world of collective intelligence, wisdom of crowds, and prediction markets!… The sun shines bright, the market-generated predictions are vastly superior to the polls as election predictors, and the track record of the public prediction markets stretches as far as the eye can see. There are opportunities aplenty in the field of [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Humor | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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