Tag Archives: track records

“The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it.”

Posted on April 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

If HudDub were to float that Nate Silver prediction, it would be much more interesting that the flat and static stuff at Wrong Tomorrow. And HubDub would obtain the same end goal: ranking the best predictors (provided that Nigel Eccles … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Market Proposals), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics | Tagged Forecasting (Science & Practice), HudDub, Nate Silver, predicting, prediction markets, prediction registries, Predictions, track records, Wrong Tomorrow | Leave a comment

2009′s best April Fool joke in the field of prediction markets

Posted on April 2, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

We have a winner (the word “whiner” would also apply): Overcoming Whatever. Excellent joke. I am still laughing thru my ass. Who needs Jay Leno when we have Robin Hanson. – Blaming others for the lack of prediction track record … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Humor | Tagged Forecasting (Science & Practice), Humor, predicting, prediction markets, prediction track record registries, Predictions, track records | Leave a comment

Who needs pundits’ track records when we have prediction markets?

Posted on March 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Emile Servan-Schreiber: Mr. Kristof, if you want to keep yourself accountable and track the success of your predictions in the long run and in real-time, why not simply participate in a prediction market such as NewsFutures? You could suggest that … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Betting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Bet 2 Give, Bet2Give, expertise, experts, HubDub, inkling markets, InTrade, NewsFutures, prediction markets, pundits, scholars, track records | Leave a comment

Track records + Prediction markets — Will they mix up well?

Posted on March 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Yet another reason why we should *not* call it the “Prediction Market Institute”… Nicholas Kristof: So what about a system to evaluate us prognosticators? Professor Tetlock suggests that various foundations might try to create a â€œtrans-ideological Consumer Reports for punditry,â€ … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice), Midas Oracle Project, Science | Tagged expertise, experts, Prediction Market Institute, pundits, scholars, track records | 1 Comment

HUBDUB PUNDIT WATCH: TechCrunch is the bottom of the pool, while VentureBeat and Pat Buchanan are stellar.

Posted on September 26, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

I am not surprised at all by the results. Maybe a non-profit organization should sponsor PunditWatch. Robin Hanson (mister “Track Records”), take notice.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged HubDub, HubDub PunditWatch, m accuracy, Pat Buchanan, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, Predictions, PunditWatch, Robin Hanson, TechCrunch, track records, VentureBeat | Leave a comment

FAMOUS SCIENTIST TO ROBIN “HIGH IQ” HANSON: Science, which is a very long-term endeavor, does not need your stickin’ idea about scoreable predictions and track records. Please, go back to minding economic issues in your Ivory Tower, and let us run science our way, on our timing. Thanks. Appreciated.

Posted on August 12, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Overcoming Whatever: I don’t really think the comparison with sports/business/weather forecasters really holds up, for a prosaic reason — in particle physics, the timescale for experiments is years and decades, not days. There is no way to efficiently grade/reward people … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Science | Tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forecasting (Science & Practice), prediction markets, Robin Hanson, scoreable forecasts, scoreable predictions, Sean Carroll, track records | Leave a comment

Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets

Posted on August 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson’s false good idea: collecting track records. But his post is the living proof that he is wrong: Prediction markets incentivize traders in researching issues (reading the experts’ works), making probability bets, and delivering a collective verdict; Experts don’t … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forecasting (Science & Practice), prediction markets, Robin Hanson, scoreable forecasts, scoreable predictions, track records | 3 Comments

Predictify is about building track records of human predictors.

Posted on June 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Robert Scoble interviews their CTO. Video – - Predictify is not a prediction exchange. We think prediction markets are superior to polls and surveys, don’t we? With Predictify, the mechanism delivering the collective verdict is simplistic: it’s a poll —with … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged CTO, DSL, Fast Company, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasts, Mike Agnich, polls, Predictify, prediction markets, Predictions, predictors, prognostics, reputations, Robert Scoble, surveys, track records, YouTube | Leave a comment

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