Tag Archives: Tom W. Bell

U.S. Supreme Court Prediction Market — [PAPER]

Posted on April 30, 2011 by Tom W. Bell

Recently posted to SSRN: FantasySCOTUS: Crowdsourcing a Prediction Market for the Supreme Court, a draft paper by Josh Blackman, Adam Aft, & Corey Carpenter assessing the accuracy of the Harlan Institute’s U.S. Supreme Court prediction market, FantasySCOTUS.org. The paper compares … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Proposals), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, FantasySCOTUS, forecasts, law, prediction markets, Predictions, SCOTUS, Supreme Court, Tom W. Bell, U.S. Supreme Court | Leave a comment

Legal stuff that Tom W. Bell didn’t tell you because you were too shy asking Jason Ruspini instead —UIGEA edition

Posted on October 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Regulations | Tagged Betting, Gambling, Internet betting, Internet gambling, Jason Ruspini, laws, Regulations, Tom W. Bell, UIGEA, Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 | Leave a comment

Why Robin Hanson is right to freak out about the upcoming CFTC ruling on “event markets” (prediction markets)

Posted on July 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson is trembling in his pants: Coming soon after speculators were blamed for rising commodity prices, I fear this is bad news for hopes for legal prediction markets anytime soon. – The CFTC decisions are politically sensible in 4 … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Regulations | Tagged BetFair, CFTC, CME Group, event derivative markets, event derivatives, insider trading, laws, Orange, particular presidential candidate, Politics, prediction markets, President, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Robin Hanson, Sports, terrorism, Tom W. Bell, United States | 1 Comment

Chris Masse’s second comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets)

Posted on July 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse Midas Oracle cfm —— midasoracle —— com chrisfmasse —— gmail —— com July 6th, 2008 Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre 1155 21st St. NW Washington D.C. 20581 Attention: Office of the Secretariat- secretary@cftc.gov Reference: Concept … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged American Enterprise Institute, Barack Obama, BetFair, CFTC, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, David Pennock, decision support tools, Eric Zitzewitz, European Union, event derivative markets, event derivatives, false solutions, France, Google, HedgeStreet, Internet search engine, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, Koleman Strumpf, Lafayette Centre, laws, prediction markets, President, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, research scientist, retail customers, retail traders, Robin Hanson, Search Engine, Secretary, Tom W. Bell, TradeFair, TradeSports, United Kingdom, United States, USD, web searches, Yahoo! | 3 Comments

Chris Masse’s first comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets)

Posted on July 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse Midas Oracle cfm —– midasoracle —– com chrisfmasse —– gmail —– com July 6th, 2008 Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre 1155 21st St. NW Washington D.C. 20581 Attention: Office of the Secretariat- secretary@cftc.gov Reference: Concept … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Regulations | Tagged American Enterprise Institute, Barack Obama, business media organizations, CFM, CFTC, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, European Union, event derivative markets, event derivatives, France, Jason Ruspini, Lafayette Centre, law professor, laws, prediction markets, President, Professor, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Secretary, Tom W. Bell, United States, Vernon Smith | Leave a comment

Why did Chris Masse opted for the “excluded commodities” and the DCMs way, since we know that stringent CFTC regulations can kill our lite, real-money prediction markets?

Posted on July 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

My first argument is to value hedging, its role in the economy, and its function as a booster for the derivative exchanges (including event derivative exchanges). My second argument is to say that it’s up to the CFTC to lower … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Regulations | Tagged CFTC, Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Jason Ruspini, laws, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Tom W. Bell | Leave a comment

The last comments are up on the CFTC website, finally.

Posted on July 8, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Thanks to Jason Ruspini for alerting me. I’ll analyze all this tomorrow. I was off this afternoon. – InTrade – (PDF file) Robin Hanson – (PDF file) Tom W. Bell et al. – (PDF file) Tom W. Bell – (PDF … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged CFTC, Chris F. Masse, CME Group, EurAsia Group, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Jason Ruspini, laws, Mark L. Bender, Phil Goetz, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Robin Hanson, Tom W. Bell | 2 Comments

What Robin Hanson told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

Posted on July 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson: Date: Mon, 07 Jul 2008 10:12:46 -0400 To: secretary@cftc.gov From: Robin Hanson <rhanson@gmu.edu> Subject: Comment on “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts” —————————————————————- I am an event market innovator, having published the first detailed … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Economics, Inventions & Innovations, Regulations | Tagged 703-993-2323, 703-993-2326, associate professor, BusinessWeek, Carow Hall, CFTC, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, F.T.C., future, George Mason University, Humanity Institute, Humanity Institute at Oxford University, individual trader, insurance markets, laws, Oxford University, prediction markets, professor of economics, public web markets, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Research Associate, Robin Hanson, Secretary, Tom W. Bell, Trader, USD | 5 Comments

Are US-based real-money prediction exchanges to become federally regulated (as DCMs)? Or semi-regulated (as ECMs, or as exchanges covered by “no-action” letters)?

Posted on July 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

BusinessWeek: In its request for comment, the CFTC reminded the public that the commission should “promote innovation for futures and derivatives.” It also added that â€”hint, hintâ€” the Iowa markets have been valuable sources of public information and have predicted … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged Bell, BusinessWeek, CFTC, Chapman law professor, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, HedgeStreet, Iowa, laws, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Tom W. Bell, United States | Leave a comment

If you have tried to contact Chris Masse thru the Midas Oracle Contact Form, I’m terribly sorry to inform you that your message was not delivered to the recipient.

Posted on July 6, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Folks, I have received 3 messages thru that Midas Oracle Contact Form, lately. They were all empty, so I thought they were spams killed by the Contact Form. But, in fact, the Contact Form was not working properly. (I got … Continue reading →

Posted in Midas Oracle Administration | Tagged Chris F. Masse, Chris Masse, contact, e-mail, e-mail address, Editor, Google, Jason Ruspini, Michael Giberson, Midas Oracle, prediction markets, Tom W. Bell | Leave a comment

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