Tag Archives: The Global Economy

Hi Robin, can you list some innovations and inventions that have originated in the emerging world and cannot fairly be called “copying”? I am frankly having trouble.

The Good Question Of The Day by our Jason Ruspini to Robin Hanson.

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Education is a bubble in a classic sense. To call something a bubble, it must be overpriced and there must be an intense belief in it.

Peter Thiel: It’s basically extremely overpriced. People are not getting their money’s worth, objectively, when you do the math. And at the same time it is something that is incredibly intensively believed; there’s this sort of psycho-social component to people … Continue reading

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Ron Paul –> the good… and the ugly

The Ugly: The Good:

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Yes, CFO Magazine did misinterpret the output data from the CFO Prediction Market powered by CrowdCast.

Leslie Fine: Chris, As I replied to you privately, indeed Vince made a mistake. [*] It is a common one for those who are not deeply familiar with prediction markets, and we have clarified the meaning of the data with … Continue reading

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Does the CFO Magazine writer misinterpret the outputs of the CFO Prediction Market (which is powered by CrowdCast)?

CFO Vincent Ryan: Indeed, asked “When will real GDP grow again?”, 32% of 168 participants project the fourth quarter of this year. Since Leslie Fine told us that CrowdCast uses a market mechanism (“binary spreads with a market maker”) to … Continue reading

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, The Global Economy | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment