Tag Archives: terrorists

InTrade’s prediction markets on secretive events are just an Irish scam. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on May 7, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: How do we know the Intrade price was not accurate? Well, the raid wasn’t just executed on a whim. It had been planned for quite some time. Therefore, the true likelihood must have been much higher than the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, scam, terrorism, terrorists | Leave a comment

InTrade on the elimination of Osama Bin Laden — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on May 7, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Mike Giberson: How do we know, now, that Intrade’s market price was not an accurate estimate of the probability bin Laden was killed or captured by September 2011? Is an prior estimate of 50 percent likelihood that a tossed coin … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Osama bin Laden, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, Robin Hanson, terrorism, terrorists | 1 Comment

InTrade was not able to predict the elimination of Osama Bin Laden. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Posted on May 4, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

I already blogged about the big fail of the prediction markets. Here’s more from the NYT, Eddy Elfenbein, and Barry Ritholtz.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, Osama bin Laden, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, terrorism, terrorists | 4 Comments

Did Bin Laden speculate on the US airline stock derivatives (shorting them) between September 6, 2001 (date when he learned the timing of the attacks), and September 11, 2001 (date of the 4 attacks)?

Posted on May 23, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree Unusual Option Market Activity and the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001 – by Allen M. Poteshman – 2006 Options traders, corporate managers, security analysts, exchange officials, regulators, prosecutors, policy makers, andâ€”at timesâ€”the public … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged 9/11 Commission, Airline, airline index, Al Qaeda, Allen M. Poteshman, Bin Laden, calls, derivatives, Did Bin Laden, FBI, Federal Bureau of Investigation, insider trading, insiders, options, Policy Analysis Market, put options, puts, S&P 500, SEC, Securities and Exchange Commission, Standard and Poor's airline, stocks, terrorism, terrorists, UAL, United States, US airlines, World Trade Center | 3 Comments

John McCain’s grumpy old pal writes to Bo Cowgill’s boss.

Posted on May 20, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Joe Lieberman: May 19, 2008 Dr. Eric Schmidt Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer Google, Inc. 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway Mountain View, CA 94043 Dear Dr. Schmidt: YouTube is being used to share videos produced by al-Qaeda and other … Continue reading →

Posted in Ethics, Politics, The Internet | Tagged Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Ansar al-Islam, Board and Chief Executive Officer, California, chairman, Chairman of the Board, Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, Department of State, Eric Schmidt, Foreign Terrorist, Google, Homegrown Terrorist, Internet campaign, Iraq, Iraq war, Islamist terrorist, islamists, Joe Lieberman, John McCain, Joseph I. Lieberman, law enforcement, media campaign, Mountain View, multi-tiered online media operation, online content, Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, terrorists, United States, YouTube | Leave a comment