Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: tax rate futures

Jason Ruspini was an imprudent and cocky predictor, but, in the end, he is a honest man.

Jason Ruspini went overboard on BBN TV, claiming his tax futures markets will become InTrade’s most popular ones in 2009, but he managed to control well his descent to Earth:
[Y]es they have lost a lot of steam and that statement seems overconfident at this point, – or has always [been] for that matter. There was [...]

Hedge your taxes –and forecast them too.

The mainstream media continue to show interest for Jason Ruspini’s tax futures markets.
Previously: Video.

2009 tax futures yielding 1.5%

The “>34″ contracts are being offered at 96. If you discount the possibility of the marginal tax rate for that year being below 34%, this is an annual yield of about 1.5%, after transaction fees. The 2010 “>34″s are paying around 1.35% and the 2011s, 1.2%. Buying any of those allows you to [...]

Intrade, with carry

For years now, a criticism of Intrade has been its lack of a positive carry in long-term markets. In contrast to regulated futures exchanges, Intrade does not pay out interest on deposits to most traders. While understandable, this discourages liquidity and can skew prices near extremes as future winnings are discounted, exaggerating any favorite/longshot bias.
If [...]

Meet Jason Ruspini, Financial Research Analyst.

[I took the shot when he was smiling ---saying, "Well, obviously, they are not EuroDollars yet", or something of that effect.]
Jason Ruspini @ LinkedIn
Jason Ruspini’s blog
Jason Ruspini @ Midas Oracle
[Jason Ruspini is the little joker who put up the "Meet Chris Masse" post, last year. Retaliation is something he should expect, of [...]

Tax Futures – Jason Ruspini Edition

Video uploaded to YouTube by Fabian John of Tom Next (a German web forum on financial event derivative trading)
Tax rate prediction markets – YouTube

Related: Bloomberg
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Jason,
You’re almost perfect. One thing that intrigues me is that you’re pretty bullish on those prediction markets. How come you’re so bold, young man?

Talking tax futures on BNN, Canada’s business channel

Except for that stupid smirk, not terrible for my first t.v. appearance.
It’s 23:45 minutes in, here.
Afterwards, I met some of the guys from CNBC’s Fast Money, who were great. I wouldn’t mind doing it again.

Jason Ruspini’s Tax Rate Prediction Markets… are taking off.

Jason,
Tell the InTrade techie to fix the mess on InTrade v2.
Highest Marginal Single-Filer Fed Income Tax Rate to be Equal or Greater than 36% in 2009 Tax Year

Taxes are the largest class of risk people don’t hedge. Our Jason Ruspini (allied with InTrade) wants to change that.

Jason Ruspini, interviewed by Bloomberg:
Taxes “are the largest class of risk people don’t hedge,” said Jason Ruspini, a New York hedge fund analyst who established the market, which began trading last week. “Hopefully this year, with this election, there will be kind of an increased interest in this kind of thing.” [...] “If Democrats are [...]

We already have prediction markets in future tax rates. It’s called the municipal bond yield curve.

Says Doug Colkitt, in a comment on Marginal Revolution (which features Jason Ruspini’s prediction markets on future federal tax rates).
To which Jason Ruspini responds:
Doug: Yes, but you need to look at the spread to taxable bonds, and that spread has basis risk with respect to future tax rates. Also, what is the carry to go [...]

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