Tag Archives: Super Tuesday

Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday

Both the prediction market and the pollster called 5 of the 7 head-to-head contest winners, so it was mostly ties between them. But in the NJ Democratic primary and the California Republican primary, Intrade contracts pointed to the winner on … Continue reading

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Super Tuesday, The Morning After — Wednesday Morning US Presidendial Elections To Death

— The prediction markets seem to be impressed by 72-year-old John McCain’s ability to seduce the independent voters. Would he really incarnate… “change” (the buzzword in the exit polls)?? — Democratic Nomination Hillary Clinton = 55% Barack Obama = 46% … Continue reading

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Justin Wolfers will be glued on InTrade on Super Tuesday night.

Much better piece than last time. No more prediction market event study —quite boring and of dubious quality. This time, he outputs a quality forward-looking piece, with a good narrative. [...] While momentum tends to build slowly in polling data, … Continue reading

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The 2008 US presidential election as seen thru the prism of the BetFair prediction markets

— Next US President — Winning Party — Female President? — Democratic Candidate — Republican Candidate — Source: BetFair Politics Zone — More Charts

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How political prediction markets save lives

Over the years there has been a lot of talk in this community about how prediction markets could be “socially valuable”. The discussion has often focused on the value of the information and/or predictions that the markets could generate, especially … Continue reading

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Super Tuesday = Free money, if you are smarter than the crowd

At Overcoming Bias, Eliezer Yudkowsky invites pundits, partisans, and anyone else with a nascent opinion about the limits of prediction markets to, in effect, put up or shut up. (Though he puts it in somewhat nicer words). Here is a … Continue reading

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The 2008 Super Tuesday charts

Super Tuesday — The Democrats — — The Republicans —

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WHY THE PREDICTION MARKETS WILL LIKELY F**K UP SUPER TUESDAY 2008.

Via Wall Street investor and blogger Barry Ritholtz, Wall Street Journal’ s June Kronholz: In Campaign 2008, Pollsters Are Biggest Losers • The Issue – Opinion-poll results were wide of the mark in early-voting states and will likely misjudge the … Continue reading

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Still unconvinced by prediction market journalist Justin Wolfers

The Justin Wolfers series in the Wall Street Journal is plagued with rotten links to the WSJ’s bot-driven, play-money prediction sub-exchange (which is secretly programed to reflect InTrade’s real-money prices). — The latest installment (which does not featured a single … Continue reading

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