Tag Archives: state polls
A graph with a data point for each state, with the horizontal axis representing the polling data and the vertical axis representing the Intrade contract price
Via Andrew Gelman
On November 3, 2008:
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“Still, as noted, it was a good election for [the] prediction markets and another piece of evidence of their superiority over the pundit[s] (and at least parity with the poll).”
Dixit Nigel Eccles in a comment.
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at least parity with the poll
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I agree with the above.
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their superiority over the pundits
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What documented evidence do you have about that, mister the cocky entrepreneurial Scotsman?
John Tierney linked to that Huffington Post that listed the pundits’ predictions about the total number of electoral votes that each presidential candidate would take. [...]
Is Iowa Electronic Markets’ George Neumann really a gentleman?
George Neumann is ducking the objections that was put under his very nose.
Bad.
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It wasn’t about the predictions.
Let’s not confuse media visibility with utility. Aside from the depressed Obama-to-win prices on one exchange, prediction market and polling aggregation results for the 2008 election were essentially the same using squared errors. Despite his insane schematics, Emile Servan-Schreiber has a good point about capturing the interest of the public, something that nerdy [...]
“Long after Intrade gave a 99% chance for an Obama victory, CNN announced him as the winner, predictably at 11pm EST on-the-dot.”
Because CNN wanted a 100% certainty, Jason.
You are mixing up oranges and bananas, here.
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2008 US presidential elections
- InTrade versus Nate Silver
- The New York Times’s analysis on the (almost) final results.
UPDATE: Electoral-Vote.com on their accuracy.
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Nate Silver “killed” InTrade.
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