Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Search Engine

The secret URL where Google prototypes the future of search

Code name: Google Caffeine
Warming: Works only 50% of the time. (The other 50%, the results come from the current Google Search.)
http://209.85.225.103/

Yahoo! Finance vertical search

Yahoo! Finance vertical search

Why the BetFair model is partially obsolete

I like BetFair and the BetFair people very much. I was the only blogger to talk up the BetFair starting price system and the BetFair brand-new bet-matching logic. But the other face of the coin is that 2 aspects of their model are rotten to the core.
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BetFair was created in 1999 and started off in [...]

He is not the “Master Of All Universes”, he is low key, he blogs only once a month, his DPMM lost it to MSR (one to many thousands, and soon, one to many hundreds of thousands), his set of search engine prediction markets at InTrade is a nuclear disaster of Biblical proportions, his Yahoo! Tech Buzz Game is a hole into the ground that reaches the center of the Earth, but… so many people truly LOVE him.

The Greek:
…his own majesty and my very own prediction markets guru David Pennock; yes, he is such a geek but modest.
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David Pennock
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Chris Masse’s second comment to the CFTC on “event markets” (prediction markets)

Chris F. Masse
Midas Oracle
cfm —— midasoracle —— com
chrisfmasse —— gmail —— com
July 6th, 2008
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Three Lafayette Centre
1155 21st St. NW
Washington D.C. 20581
Attention:
Office of the Secretariat- secretary@cftc.gov
Reference:
Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts
73 FR 25669
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Just a technical note, before I give you my thoughts. In the following, I call “prediction market” [...]

BetFair Forum Search (Unofficial)

BetFair Forum Search (Unofficial)
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Now listed on my LINKS page under “Prediction Market Search Engines”.
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Please, suggest other links to be included on that LINKS page… or on the BEST page… or on the PREDICTIONS page.
Thanks. Will make up to you.
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Psstt… The multi-exchange search engine (created by those flash-in-the-pan PMIA bozos) has been decommissioned, I see.
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BetFair-TradeFair hire Bo Cowgill in an attempt to improve their ranking in Google web search results.

BetFair:

BetFair CEO David Yu:
We’re delighted to welcome Bo Cowgill in HammerSmith. Bo had a fantastic career at Google, working, in the end, under Google’s Chief Economist Hal Varian. Throughout his years at Google, Bo acquired precious knowledge about the inner working of search engine technology, which will be helpful to BetFair-TradeFair for fighting annoying externalities: [...]

BetFair-TradeFair (slightly) improve their blog, finally (it was about time) —and open 2 new sections: “prediction markets” and “financials”.

Here’s the vertical menu of the BetFair blog. Scroll down until you see “Politics”, and “Prediction Markets”.
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Here’s their section on politics:

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Here’s their section on finance:

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My thoughts:

Their “about” page still does not list the names of their editor(s) and publisher(s). It would give them credibility.
My understanding is that their blog is run by their PR department. [...]

Too early to call David Pennock’s prediction markets a nuclear disaster

This is a footnote for my previous post, “Are David Pennock’s search engine prediction markets the worst marketing disaster since the New Coke?“.
I maintain all my talking about the necessity of good advanced indicators.
However, there is something I should have said to the readers. The prediction markets created in the past by Justin Wolfers, Eric [...]

Are David Pennock’s search engine prediction markets the worst marketing disaster since the New Coke?

Only 2 trades (yes, “two”), one month later:

Are there any good advanced indicators of future search engine market shares? I was not entirely convinced.
Equally, with Felix Salmon, I’m asking whether there are good advanced indicators of future earthquakes. I’m a bit doubtful.
Which is why I said that any person proposing new prediction markets should be [...]

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