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Tag Archives: scoreable forecasts
FAMOUS SCIENTIST TO ROBIN “HIGH IQ” HANSON: Science, which is a very long-term endeavor, does not need your stickin’ idea about scoreable predictions and track records. Please, go back to minding economic issues in your Ivory Tower, and let us run science our way, on our timing. Thanks. Appreciated.
Overcoming Whatever: I don’t really think the comparison with sports/business/weather forecasters really holds up, for a prosaic reason — in particle physics, the timescale for experiments is years and decades, not days. There is no way to efficiently grade/reward people … Continue reading →
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Science
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Tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, Forecasting (Science & Practice), prediction markets, Robin Hanson, scoreable forecasts, scoreable predictions, Sean Carroll, track records
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Track Record Collecting vs. Prediction Markets
Robin Hanson’s false good idea: collecting track records. But his post is the living proof that he is wrong: Prediction markets incentivize traders in researching issues (reading the experts’ works), making probability bets, and delivering a collective verdict; Experts don’t … Continue reading →