Tag Archives: scientist

Forrest Nelson valids Emile Servan-Schreiber.

Via our good friends at Forecasting Principles American Scientist: Forrest Nelson, a professor of economics at the University of Iowa, helped to found the Iowa Electronic Markets. He and his colleagues faced considerable push-back from their university’s lawyers in setting … Continue reading

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.

Via Stan Jonas, Nassim Nicholas Taleb cited in a Bloomberg article (Taleb Outsells Greenspan as Black Swan Gives Worst Turbulence): Stress tests are inherently risky because they ignore rare but potentially devastating events. [...] .. [“stress test” = Wall Street … Continue reading

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The prediction market experts and industry players should tap into the power of videos.

The Scientist urges the science researchers to produce videos and publish them on YouTube. — #1. CLUNKY WAY: Write slides on your MicroSoft PowerPoint software (a tool that was not meant for the Web), add audio, and publish the webinar … Continue reading

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Some global warming updates from GISS

Intrade (or any prediction exchange wanting to compete), please list global warming contracts! The information will probably end up saving lives, as we can more efficiently allocate finite resources to global warming research and reduction (vs. preventative healthcare, disease control, … Continue reading

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Citizen Science Projects + The International Polar Year + Liberty Science Center

— Citizen Science Projects “Citizen Scientists” are people who conduct volunteer scientific research without formal credentials. The data gathered and reported by citizen scientists is used by professional scientists and is typically available to the public. Anyone with an interest … Continue reading

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My Currency lets wisdom of the crowds estimate real estate prices. – YouTube

My Currency lets wisdom of the crowds estimate real estate prices. – YouTube – Speech at DEMO (a start-up conference). – 2007-02-22 Keywords used in the intro of the speech: “prediction markets” and “wisdom of crowds” Pay attention how the … Continue reading

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This is a really tough decision. War may well be the right decision at this point. In fact, I think it–it’s–it–it probably is.

So said Time columnist Joe Klein just before the Iraq war. And now, Joe Klein pretends that he was all against this Iraq war from day one. Joe Klein is just the latest of the so-called “MSN” pundits caught red-handed … Continue reading

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Check out this great science blog… (and PM conf report)

… Cosmic Variance, which discusses a recent economics-vs-physics issue published on Robin Hanson’s group blog, Overcoming Errors dot com —where the main error is to invite blablating philosophers and not meta-thinking physicists. While you are at it, also check climate-expert … Continue reading

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PEAR lab (Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research) – REDUX – Retrocausality in physics

In my previous blog post, I said that Princeton professor Robert Jahn has been unable of finding the right hypothesis about the so-called “psychic phenomena” (if any). I mentioned the work of a theoretical physicist, Olivier Costa de Beauregard, who … Continue reading

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SCIENTIST DAVE PENNOCK IS LAUGHING ALL THE WAY TO HIS NEW YORK BANK.

… Psstt… TradeSports traders… Wanna be rich?… Do like David Pennock: Get a PhD… with a major in probabilities… Although TradeSports’s individual state predictions and overall Senate prediction were entirely consistent, one might argue that traders underestimated the degree of … Continue reading

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