I have been blogging a lot about the damage done by some Ivory Tower economic professors and some commercial practitioners who exaggerate the benefits of the prediction markets. (Some people are not very happy with what I said. ) The Gartner consultants have a word for that —-”-hype”-. Hyping is defined as the act of publicizing in an exaggerated and often misleading manner. The way Internet citizens can guard against hype is to read bloggers and journalists (whatever you call them) who publish high-quality reports and opinions about the brand-new products and the fresh startups. It is a difficult task. It requires a solid expertise and a way to deflect away commercial influence and pressure (e.g., from some professionals who think that bloggers shouldn’-t publish anything without their prior “-consent”-). If you want a role model for such an impartial journalist, I recommend to look at search engine expert Danny Sullivan of Search Engine Land. If you have 2 minutes, you could go there and scan his hype-bursting talking points.
When we recently talked to a MSM reporter for a major article, he/she specifically said he/she didn’-t want to write about public prediction exchanges because “-there is nothing new there,”- and was even hesitant to write about the activities of certain private, high-tech companies because they already have a reputation for “-trying anything.”- If that attitude is prevalent among other journalists, there may already be a fatigue setting in which is why you saw very little interest in the latest WSJ article on political prediction markets. Thinking about the readership of the major business press, through several feature articles there is already an awareness about the basics. There is limited return in writing yet another: “-people are trading on everything from housing futures to political candidates, isn’-t that amazing?”-
There also seems to be very little innovation coming from the major public exchanges. When’-s the last time any of the major prediction exchanges did anything truly noteworthy with their platform that was worth writing about? […]
The novelty of it all is wearing off, the “-wisdom of crowds”- stories have been done, and the public exchanges are going to need to come up with Act II, either through innovation, new content strategies, or partnerships.