Tag Archives: Prediction Post-Mortem
Ray Kurzweil (Robin Hanson’s guru) got his 1999-2009 predictions … all wrong.
- Michael Anissimov: Kurzweil’s Failed 2009 Predictions
- More at the Next Big Future — (an excellent blog)
UPDATE
Accuracy of millenium predictions
Millennium Predictions That Got Things Right – and Those That Didn’t.
2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race: Was Nate Silver’s prediction more accurate than InTrade’s?
Nate Silver’s prediction (November 2, 2009): “I’d make Christie about the 4:3 favorite.”
[ UPDATE: Nate Silver's prediction post-mortem on the 2009 US elections.]
You can see that days before Elections 2009, InTrade was too heavy on Corzine:
Nobel Prize for Economics 2009 — Prediction Accuracy
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 2009 to Elinor Ostrom “for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons” and Oliver E. Williamson “for his analysis of economic governance, especially the boundaries of the firm”.
Both the bookmakers and [...]
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