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Recent Posts
- Native apps are reigning on mobiles, but Jakob Nielsen strategically bets on web apps. — [LINK]
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
Tag Archives: Prediction Post-Mortem
Why you should never trust John Battelle’s opinion on tech — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]
- John Battelle pumped up “Color” at inception, and now we have confirmation that it is a lemon. – John Battelle badmouthed the iPad at inception, and now we know that it is revolutionizing computing.
Economists who had a better record at calling extreme events had a worse record in general.
“The analyst with the largest number as well as the highest proportion of accurate and extreme forecasts had, by far, the worst forecasting record.“
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Economics, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Prediction Post-Mortem
Tagged analysis, economic forecasting, economic forecasts, economic predicting, economic predictions, Economics, economy, forecasting, forecasts, post-mortem, post-mortem predictions, predicting, Prediction Post-Mortem, Predictions
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Ray Kurzweil (Robin Hanson’s guru) got his 1999-2009 predictions … all wrong.
- Michael Anissimov: Kurzweil’s Failed 2009 Predictions – More at the Next Big Future — (an excellent blog) UPDATE
Accuracy of millenium predictions
Millennium Predictions That Got Things Right – and Those That Didn’t.
2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race: Was Nate Silver’s prediction more accurate than InTrade’s?
Nate Silver‘s prediction (November 2, 2009): “I’d make Christie about the 4:3 favorite.” [ UPDATE: Nate Silver's prediction post-mortem on the 2009 US elections.] You can see that days before Elections 2009, InTrade was too heavy on Corzine:
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Prediction Post-Mortem
Tagged 2009 New Jersey gubernatorial race, betting markets, Chris Christie, event derivative markets, forecasts, InTrade, Jon Corzine, Nate Silver, New Jersey, Politics, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, Predictions, US politics
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Nobel Prize for Economics 2009 — Prediction Accuracy
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 2009 to Elinor Ostrom “for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons” and Oliver E. Williamson … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics, 2009 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences, accuracy, bookmakers, economic science, economic sciences, Economics, Elinor Ostrom, inkling markets, Ladbrokes, Nobel Prize for Economics, Oliver E. Williamson, Oliver Williamson, prediction accuracy, prediction market, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences
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