Tag Archives: prediction market

Ex-HSX Max Keiser claims that InTrade’s Ron Paul prediction market is manipulated. — [VIDEO]

Posted on September 7, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Market Calls), Betting, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Market Makers (Human), Market Prices & Probabilities, News, Politics | Tagged Alex Jones, Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, event derivative market, event derivatives, forecasting, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HSX, manipulation, market manipulation, Max Keiser, Politics, predicting, prediction market, prediction markets, radio, Ron Paul, US politics | Leave a comment

Republican Scott Brown has become the Senator-elect from Massachusetts.

Posted on January 20, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged election, elections, InTrade, Martha Coakley, Massachusetts, Nate Silver, Politics, prediction market, prediction markets, Scott Brown, Ted Kennedy, United States Senate, US politics, US Senate | Leave a comment

Nobel Prize for Economics 2009 — Prediction Accuracy

Posted on October 12, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel for 2009 to Elinor Ostrom “for her analysis of economic governance, especially the commons” and Oliver E. Williamson … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics, 2009 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences, accuracy, bookmakers, economic science, economic sciences, Economics, Elinor Ostrom, inkling markets, Ladbrokes, Nobel Prize for Economics, Oliver E. Williamson, Oliver Williamson, prediction accuracy, prediction market, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences | 18 Comments

Nobel Prize for Economics 2009 Predictions

Posted on October 9, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The 2009 Nobel prize for economics (2009 Sveriges Riksbank prize in economic sciences) will be awarded on Monday, October 12, 2009. 1. Bookmakers Ladbrokes’s probabilities (odds) for the 2009 Nobel prize in economics: Eugene Fama 2/1 Paul Romer 4/1 Ernst … Continue reading →

Posted in Betting, Collective Forecasting, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics, 2009 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences, bookmakers, economic science, economic sciences, Economics, Elinor Ostrom, inkling markets, Ladbrokes, Nobel Prize for Economics, Oliver E. Williamson, Oliver Williamson, prediction market, prediction markets, Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences | Leave a comment

Who will get the 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics? Donâ€™t bet on it. Too risky.

Posted on October 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

1. Prediction Markets 2a. InTrade has just opened some Nobel prediction markets —see under “current events”. 2b. Inkling Markets – Which economist will receive the 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics (a.k.a. the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences)? Previously: Will … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged 2009 Nobel Prize for Economics, 2009 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences, bookmakers, Elinor Ostrom, inkling markets, Ladbrokes, Nobel Prize for Economics, Oliver E. Williamson, Oliver Williamson, prediction market, prediction markets, Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences | Leave a comment

The Prediction Market applicaton brings the power of prediction markets to Facebook.

Posted on July 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

“Buy and sell shares in future ‘events’, and if they come true, your portfolio will rise! Compare your prediction powers against friends to see who is the best!” They have a FaceBook page, too.

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged FaceBook, prediction market, prediction markets | 2 Comments

Prediction Market Definition —updated

Posted on October 4, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Definition – A prediction market is a market for a contract that yields payments based on the outcome of a partially uncertain future event, such as an election. A contract pays $100 only if candidate X wins the election, and … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged accuracy, betting markets, definitions, event derivative, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), forecasting mechanisms, future events, Information Aggregation, information value, objective probabilistic predictions, prediction accuracy, prediction market, prediction market definition, prediction market explainer, prediction markets, Predictions, probabilistic predictions, Robin Hanson, the future | 1 Comment

Oscars 2007 – Hollywood Stock Exchange – Bingo!

Posted on February 27, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

HSX Amy Lamare: Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX.com) Traders correctly picked 7 out of 8 Top Category Oscar Winners to continue its stellar record. Los Angeles, California, February 26, 2007 – Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), announced a spectacular 88% success rate … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Market Expiry | Tagged Alex Costakis, Amy Lamare, Animation, California, Hollywood Stock Exchange, Internet Marketing, Los Angeles, Managing Director, Max Keiser, Michael Burns, NominOption, online game, OSCAR, Oscars, Oscars 2007 - Hollywood Stock Exchange, prediction market, prediction market technology, prediction markets | 2 Comments

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