Tag Archives: Prediction Journalism

Once again, Yahoo!’s David Rothschild forgets to cite InTrade and BetFair as probability sources. — [OOPS]

Here. Previously.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , | 2 Comments

Knowns and unknowns of the 2012 presidential elections — [LINK]

“We gather information from a variety of sources (some of which are themselves information aggregators), including prediction markets, polls, web search, social activity, games, and historical precedent, and combine it together to produce a Consensus Prediction that is as unbiased, … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics, Prediction Journalism, Resources - References | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Nate Silver criticizes InTrade for its short-lived Obama bounce following Bin Laden’s assassination. — [CHART]

Scenarios.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Prediction Journalism, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Betting @ BetFair remains a mediocre-quality publication —triple alas.

I have spent some time this morning browsing it, and I am sad to report that the quality of this news website is still very low. – The navigation is crappy. For instance, clicking on the BetFair logo will bring … Continue reading

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Journalism, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

PROVEN AND DOCUMENTED: Joe Weisenthal is drunken with his own manipulation paranoia.

Joe is going off the deep end. Market noises are now interpreted as the intergalactic battle between the pro-HCR and the anti-HCR, who are both seeking to manipulate the InTrade prediction markets. No evidence whatsoever is displayed. P.S: I am … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Health care reform is down to 47% at InTrade. –> Toss a coin, it will get you the same.

So much for the “insider trading” who signaled the certainty of the adoption of the new health care reform bill. Joe Weisenthal swallowed InTrade CEO’s marketing bait. More on Memeorandum. Previously: Insider trading in the InTrade prediction market on health … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Market Trading, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Joe Weisenthal is now in bed with InTrade.

Business Insider cites various InTrade probabilities. Joe should mention whether there is volume on each market. Joe should cite BetFair, not InTrade, for any UK-related event. Joe should be aware of InTrade’s long history of fucking up contracts and settlements … Continue reading

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