Tag Archives: Paul Tetlock

Prediction markets didn’t “revolutionize” decision-making —and will never do. However, they are a nice condiment to the classic forecasting toolkit.

I have spent several hours re-reading the 2004 AEI-Brookings book, “Information Markets” (by which they mean “prediction markets”). It is a collection of un-enlightening research articles —except for the IEM article, which is outstanding, both on the factual and theoretical … Continue reading

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What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file): July 4th 2008 The Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre 1155 21st Street NW Washington, DC 20581 U.S.A. Attention: Office of the Secretariat RE: “Concept Release … Continue reading

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My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it. Given … Continue reading

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BetFair-TradeFair (slightly) improve their blog, finally (it was about time) —and open 2 new sections: “prediction markets” and “financials”.

Here’s the vertical menu of the BetFair blog. Scroll down until you see “Politics”, and “Prediction Markets”. – - Here’s their section on politics: – Here’s their section on finance: – - My thoughts: Their “about” page still does not … Continue reading

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Who did best in explaining the prediction markets to the lynching crowd?

After the New Hampshire fiasco, 16 18 people came to defend the prediction markets, so far. So far, the best takes are from: George Tziralis Robin Hanson Jonathan Kennedy and I’ll give the 4th spot to a combo, mixing takes … Continue reading

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The old guy you see in the picture, making a fool of himself, is a respected physics professor from the MIT.

… demonstrating to his students that a period of a pendulum is independent of the mass. “Physics works!” Professor Lewin shouts, as the classroom explodes in cheers. Are our good prediction market doctors [*] that charismatic and popular??? Have those … Continue reading

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Academics to discuss prediction market experience

According to the preliminary schedule of the 2008 American Economic Association annual meetings, some leading prediction market scholars will be gathering to discuss empirical data from prediction markets. The meetings will be held in New Orleans in early January [2008]. … Continue reading

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The Hollywood Stock Exchange, Max Keiser, and their Wikipedia entries.

— Hollywood Stock Exchange entry at Wikipedia: The Hollywood Stock Exchange, or HSX, is a web-based, multiplayer game in which players use simulated money to buy and sell “shares” of actors, directors, upcoming films, and film-related options. [...] HSX is … Continue reading

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Meet Paul Tetlock.

Paul Tetlock of Texas

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Bob Hahn turns the PETITION into a CONSENSUS.

Bob Hahn turns lead into gold. — Via Google’s Bo Cowgill, Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock’s Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal (mirror at AEI-Brookings – mirror at AEI): [...] These markets often predict more accurately than experts. Why? They … Continue reading

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