Tag Archives: Paul Tetlock

Prediction markets didn’t “revolutionize” decision-making —and will never do. However, they are a nice condiment to the classic forecasting toolkit.

Posted on February 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I have spent several hours re-reading the 2004 AEI-Brookings book, “Information Markets” (by which they mean “prediction markets”). It is a collection of un-enlightening research articles —except for the IEM article, which is outstanding, both on the factual and theoretical … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged 2008 US presidential election, accuracy, AEI-Brookings, Bob Hahn, Collective Decision Making, decision making, efficiency, enterprise prediction markets, Information Markets, Paul Tetlock, prediction markets, public prediction markets, Robert Hahn, The Truth About Prediction Markets, velocity | Leave a comment

What InTrade CEO John Delaney told the CFTC about “event markets” (prediction markets)

Posted on July 16, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

John Delaney (CEO of InTrade) – (InTrade PDF file – CFTC PDF file): July 4th 2008 The Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre 1155 21st Street NW Washington, DC 20581 U.S.A. Attention: Office of the Secretariat RE: â€œConcept Release … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged 202.418.5521, 4th of July, ABC, Acting Chairman, American Enterprise Institute, Andy Serwer, Arthur Levitt Jr., Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bloomberg, Brookings Joint Centre, Bush, Cato Institute, CEO, CFTC, Charles Noussair, Chicago, Chicago Tribune, Chief Executive Officer, CNN, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Congress, David Leonhardt, David Paton, David Pennock, de facto leader, Economics Reporter, economist, energy, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, European Central Bank, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, evet derivatives, federal government, Federal Reserve System, Florida, Fortune, Frankfurt, general public use, George Mason University, governor, HDDVD, Important Mission, InTrade, InTrade CEO, Ireland, Ivy League College, Jason Ruspini, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, KING, Koleman Strumpf, Lafayette Centre, laws, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, London, managing editor, Marco Ottaviani, Mark J. Perry, Mark Perry, media businesses, Michigan, naturaldisaster, New York, North Korea, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, Prediction Market Limited, prediction markets, President, price discovery information, Professor, professor of economics, Ray Disc, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Reuters, Richmond, Robert Mugabe, Robin Hanson, Saddam Hussein, Secretary, Securities and Exchange Commission, Stephen Dubner, the Financial Times, The Los Angles Times, the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, TIME MAGAZINE, Toshiba, traded bets, U.S. Department of Energy, United States, United States Navy, University of Michigan-Flint, University of Westminster Business School, US government, USD, Wall Street Journal, Walt Lukken, What InTrade, White House, Yoshiaki Arata | 3 Comments

My response to the CFTC on event contracts

Posted on July 5, 2008 by Jason Ruspini

Here is my response to the CFTC’s “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts.” I appreciate this opportunity to help in working towards regulated prediction markets in the US, and I thank the Commissioners for it. Given … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Politics, Regulations | Tagged arbitrator, Brookings Institution Press, candidate, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission Three Lafayette Centre, Congress, Democratic president, Department of the Treasury, Eric Zitzewitz, Erik Snowberg, Eriz Zitzewitz, event contracts, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event markets, for-profit prediction exchanges, General, insurance contracts, Iraq, Islamic Republic of Iran, Jason Ruspini, Justin Wolfers, laws, not-for-profit prediction exchanges, oil prices, particular product, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, President, Quarterly Journal of Political Science, real-money prediction markets, Regulations, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, S&P 500, Securities and Exchange Commission, South Carolina, the candidate, Trader, United States, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, USD, Washington D.C. | Leave a comment

BetFair-TradeFair (slightly) improve their blog, finally (it was about time) —and open 2 new sections: “prediction markets” and “financials”.

Posted on March 7, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Here’s the vertical menu of the BetFair blog. Scroll down until you see “Politics”, and “Prediction Markets”. – - Here’s their section on politics: – Here’s their section on finance: – - My thoughts: Their “about” page still does not … Continue reading →

Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Prediction Journalism, Resources - References | Tagged America, author, BetFair, BetFair blog, Clinton, David Jack, David Pennock, Editor, Eric Ziztwitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Finance, Google, informed BetFair trader, InTrade, Justin Wolfers, KING, Lance Fortnow, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Michael Robb, Mike Robb, Paul Tetlock, prediction exchanges, prediction market approach, prediction market journalism, prediction market writer, prediction markets, Professor, Robin Hanson, Search Engine, search engine spiders, TradeFair, TradeSports, United Kingdom, web-literate internationalist, writer | 3 Comments

Who did best in explaining the prediction markets to the lynching crowd?

Posted on January 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

After the New Hampshire fiasco, 16 18 people came to defend the prediction markets, so far. So far, the best takes are from: George Tziralis Robin Hanson Jonathan Kennedy and I’ll give the 4th spot to a combo, mixing takes … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged accuracy, Adam, Adam Siegel, Brent Stinsky, Chris Hibbert, Christmas, Collective Intelligence, critics, David Jack, David Pennock, David Perry, David Yu, Donald Luskin, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, George Tziralis, Greg Mankiw, James Surowiecki, Jed Christiansen, John Delaney, John Tierney, Jonathan Kennedy, Ken Kittlitz, Mark Davis, Mike Linksvayer, New Hampshire, Panos Ipeirotis, Paul Tetlock, prediction markets, Richard Borghesi, Robin Hanson, Steve Bass, Steve Roman, Tyler Cowen, wisdom of crowds, YouTube | 1 Comment

The old guy you see in the picture, making a fool of himself, is a respected physics professor from the MIT.

Posted on December 19, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

… demonstrating to his students that a period of a pendulum is independent of the mass. â€œPhysics works!â€ Professor Lewin shouts, as the classroom explodes in cheers. Are our good prediction market doctors [*] that charismatic and popular??? Have those … Continue reading →

Posted in Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Science | Tagged David Pennock, Eric Ziztzewitz, Justin Wolfers, MIT, Paul Tetlock, physics, prediction markets, Professor, respected physics professor, Robin Hanson, Walter H. G. Lewin | Leave a comment

Academics to discuss prediction market experience

Posted on October 18, 2007 by Michael Giberson

According to the preliminary schedule of the 2008 American Economic Association annual meetings, some leading prediction market scholars will be gathering to discuss empirical data from prediction markets. The meetings will be held in New Orleans in early January [2008]. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Events & Meetings | Tagged American Economic Association, Austin, California, Charles Plott, Eric Zitzewitz, Forrest Nelson, George Mason University, Google, Iowa, Justin Wolfers, New Orleans, Paul Tetlock, Pennsylvania, PHILIP POLGREEN, prediction markets, Ricard Gil, Robin Hanson, Santa Cruz, Stanford University Dartmouth College, Stanford University, Steven Levitt, Texas, University of California-Santa Cruz, University of Chicago, University of Iowa, University of Pennsylvania, University of Texas, World Cup | 4 Comments

The Hollywood Stock Exchange, Max Keiser, and their Wikipedia entries.

Posted on June 22, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

— Hollywood Stock Exchange entry at Wikipedia: The Hollywood Stock Exchange, or HSX, is a web-based, multiplayer game in which players use simulated money to buy and sell “shares” of actors, directors, upcoming films, and film-related options. [...] HSX is … Continue reading →

Posted in Entrepreneurship, Exchanges & Markets, History | Tagged Alex Brown & Sons, Cambridge Technology Partners, CEO, Chris Masse, co-chairman, Editor, Eric Zitzewitz, Esther Dyson, Holllywood Stock Exchange, Hollywood Stock Exchange, individual editor, journalist, Justin Wolfers, Kinooga, Louisiana, Major, Max Keiser, Michael Burns, Midas Oracle, NBC, New York Times, Oppenheimer & Co. His, Paul Tetlock, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Robert Metcalfe, Robin Hanson, Securities and Exchange Commission, Shearson Lehman, Software, the New York Times, uninvolved administrator, United States, virtual central bank, Virtual Specialist, virtual specialist technology, Wall Street, West Hollywood California | Leave a comment

Meet Paul Tetlock.

Posted on May 11, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Tetlock of Texas

Posted in People | Tagged Paul Tetlock, Texas | Leave a comment

Bob Hahn turns the PETITION into a CONSENSUS.

Posted on May 11, 2007 by Chris F. Masse

Bob Hahn turns lead into gold. — Via Google’s Bo Cowgill, Robert Hahn and Paul Tetlock’s Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal (mirror at AEI-Brookings – mirror at AEI): [...] These markets often predict more accurately than experts. Why? They … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Regulations | Tagged AEI-Brookings Joint Center, Bob Hahn, Bob Himself, Chris Hibbert, Chris Masse, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Daniel Kahneman, economist, Google, Jason Ruspini, Kenneth Arrow, Paul Tetlock, prediction markets, Robert Hahn, Robin Hanson, serious tools, Steve Levitt, The Wall Street Journal, Thomas Schelling, United States, USD, Vernon Smith, Viva Steve Levitt, Wall Street Journal, Washington, zany Internet folks | 6 Comments

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