Panos Ipeirotis depicted my activism to blog about the tone of the news article on enterprise prediction markets published by The Economist —-and its implications. The takeaway that his readers will get is that Chris Masse is on caffeine.
The important information that our good doctor Panos did not tell is that Chris Masse is the publisher of 2 websites (CFM since 2003 and Midas Oracle since 2006) whose main purpose is to list and/or excerpt the news articles, opinion pieces and research papers that focus on prediction markets. Since 2003, I have seen them all —-in all stripes and colors.
So, it is not like I am a gullible newbie just out of the egg. I have a certain expertise in assessing any media piece on prediction markets. And the same thing can be said about Niall O’-Connor (regarding the betting industry, more generally).
Actually, I would like to see for such collective events (senate races, oscars etc), to see a “meta-market” in each exchange:
“How many events is our exchange going to guess correctly?”
In principle, it should be possible to price correctly such contracts using the reported probabilities and their dependencies. This should give some extra attention to the fact that markets are not supposed to get everything correctly to be accurate.
Panos Ipeirotis’-s blog [*] and website
[*] Great name (”-Behind The Enemy’-s Lines”-) —-but where does the name come from?