Tag Archives: Panos Ipeirotis

Let’s sign a petition to push professor Panagiotis G. Ipeirotis to switch his blog from Blogger to WordPress.

Posted on October 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Panos Ipeirotis should switch his blog from Blogger to WordPress. Sign in the comments to express your support for the petition. Enough with Blogger. What a crappy blogging system. What a shame that an IT prof sticks with such a … Continue reading →

Posted in Humor | Tagged , , , , | 5 Comments

Wanna know more about Panos Ipeirotis’s paper on prediction markets of prediction markets?

Posted on September 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

His co-author is here, telling his side of the story. #2. There is indeed a lack of high quality statistical research on prediction markets. I have seen published papers doing terrible things like regressing prices from one prediction market on … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , | 7 Comments

Let’s challenge Panos Ipeirotis’s prediction market paper… and let’s have fun.

Posted on September 3, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Anonymous said… blah. First, Panos, your results would suggest that the volatility on Super Tuesday would be lower than on a random Tuesday in July when there is zero news flow. Second, there is no reason to expect short term … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta) | Tagged , | 3 Comments

Prediction markets are not beauty contests, and InTrade are not truth-oriented people.

Posted on August 30, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Panos Iperotis: [T]he “truth grounding” of prediction markets serves to avoid the self-reinforcement described above. If a market, grounded on a real outcome, says A=90% and B=10% one day before expiration, and I believe that B is the real winner, … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Ethics, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Unlike soap or deodorant, which can be placed by marketing, shaving is very much performance. – Bill Steele

Posted on August 29, 2009 by Chris F. Masse
Posted in Humor, People | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

The Prediction Market Police

Posted on August 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I should have listened to Panos Ipeirotis…!!!…

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

PROFESSOR PANOS IPEIROTIS INVOLVED IN KILLING ENDANGERED SPECIES…!??…

Posted on August 17, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- SeaWorld – WWF

Posted in Ethics | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Accurate prediction markets

Posted on June 19, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Stupidity, as defined by Prof Panos… Panos Ipeirotis: [...] It is largely stupid to call “successful” a continuous market that gets the average right but has a very high spread over the outcomes. Similarly, it is stupid to call a … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , | 11 Comments

The prediction markets chalk another one up, as Susan Boyle is sent packing.

Posted on May 30, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I have an ongoing disagreement with Prof Panos about how to report a set of expired prediction markets. He claims that one should report “the historic average of similar markets”. That’s important but not urgent. First thing is to report … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Why reporting on *one* expired prediction market is no fun… when using the scientific approach

Posted on May 28, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Panos Ipeirotis hates it when I report an individual prediction market “failure“. (“Stupidity” is how he labelled it. ) I am a fan of Panos Ipeirotis’s scientific approach on prediction markets. It is all right. However, I (obviously) won’t use … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Prediction Journalism, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment