Tag Archives: Oscars
Conditional Likelihood Loss — Redux
- Nate Silver: 0.6032
- InTrade: 0.3699
- HubDub: 0.2237
HubDub beats both InTrade and Nate Silver.
Conditional Likelihood Loss
- Nate Silver: 0.6032
- InTrade: 0.3699
InTrade looks much better than Nate Silver on the Oscars 2009.
Waiting for the HubDub numbers, now. Nigel, are you napping or what?
UK’s Guardian lambasts Mr Crystal Balls Nate Silver.
“A less-than-brilliant Oscars for Nate Silver, who used his skills as a baseball statistics nerd to turn his politics blog, FiveThirtyEight.com, into the online hit of last year’s election. Silver predicted the presidential outcome with eerie precision, and gamely crunched the numbers for Sunday’s awards ceremony too, weighing such factors as release date, box office [...]
HubDub takes home the Gold at the Oscars.
Well the Oscars have come and gone and although most pundits are chattering about Slumdog’s amazing 8 wins and Hugh Jackman’s dulcet tones, I’m more impressed by Hubdub’s amazing success.
Out of the major races, we got EVERY SINGLE ONE RIGHT. We were also the only major prediction exchange to correctly predict the Best Actor race [...]
Predicting the Oscars is in no way the right litmus test for assessing the predictive power of the prediction markets.
Mickey Kaus:
Most people in the U.S. with indoor plumbing could get [the Oscars] right.
The Oscars: What the prediction markets are expecting
Right-click on the charts, to visit the many prediction markets about the Oscars.
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See Wiser Than The Crowd, for some Oscars betting coverage.
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BetFair – The Oscars
Mike Robb: SlumDog Millionaire is poised to get 7 Oscars.
We will see…
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81st Academy Awards: Who will win the Oscar for Best Picture?
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© NewsFutures
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Hollywood Stock Exchange – The Oscars
Press [...]
Betting on the Oscars
Prediction markets have been spot-on when it comes to picking presidents, but the record is less stellar when it comes to movie stars.
Both statements are dead wrong.
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