- Nate Silver: 0.6032 – InTrade: 0.3699 InTrade looks much better than Nate Silver on the Oscars 2009. Waiting for the HubDub numbers, now. Nigel, are you napping or what?

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, conditional likelihood loss, HubDub, InTrade, Nate Silver, Oscars, Oscars 2009, prediction markets | Leave a comment

HubDub: “We nailed all 50 states; Panos did not.”

Posted on February 26, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Humor, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged accuracy, HubDub, Humor, Oscars, Oscars 2009, prediction markets | Leave a comment

UK’s Guardian lambasts Mr Crystal Balls Nate Silver.

Posted on February 25, 2009 by Niall O'Connor

“A less-than-brilliant Oscars for Nate Silver, who used his skills as a baseball statistics nerd to turn his politics blog, FiveThirtyEight.com, into the online hit of last year’s election. Silver predicted the presidential outcome with eerie precision, and gamely crunched … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged crystal balls, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Nate Silver, Oscars, prediction markets, Predictions, The Guardian, The Oscars | 1 Comment

HubDub takes home the Gold at the Oscars.

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Jenni Peterson

Well the Oscars have come and gone and although most pundits are chattering about Slumdog’s amazing 8 wins and Hugh Jackman’s dulcet tones, I’m more impressed by Hubdub’s amazing success. Out of the major races, we got EVERY SINGLE ONE … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Entertainment, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, HubDub, Oscars, prediction markets | 25 Comments

Predicting the Oscars is in no way the right litmus test for assessing the predictive power of the prediction markets.

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Mickey Kaus: Most people in the U.S. with indoor plumbing could get [the Oscars] right.

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Forecasting (Science & Practice), Oscars, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions | Leave a comment

Nate Silver’s model vs. InTrade’s prediction markets

Posted on February 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

The information is below. However, before that, just a short note. – The real comparison to do would be to compare the prediction markets with a panel of very diverse Oscar predictors. The real question to ask is, “Was forecasting … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Forecasting (Science & Practice), InTrade, Nate Silver, Oscars, Oscars 2009, prediction markets, Predictions | 3 Comments

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