Meta
-
Recent Posts
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Tag Archives: Oscars 2009
Conditional Likelihood Loss — Redux
- Nate Silver: 0.6032 – InTrade: 0.3699 – HubDub: 0.2237 HubDub beats both InTrade and Nate Silver.
Conditional Likelihood Loss
- Nate Silver: 0.6032 – InTrade: 0.3699 InTrade looks much better than Nate Silver on the Oscars 2009. Waiting for the HubDub numbers, now. Nigel, are you napping or what?
HubDub: “We nailed all 50 states; Panos did not.”
Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Humor, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce
Tagged accuracy, HubDub, Humor, Oscars, Oscars 2009, prediction markets
Leave a comment
“We nailed all 50 states.”
“One site that’s crowing today is Hubdub, which hit all six major awards.”
Oscars 2009: Andrew Gelman weighs in.
Predictions that are too good to be true? – Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
“Guessing all the frontrunners correctly is something to brag ONLY if the reported confidences are high enough.”
“If they are not and you get them all correctly, then the markets have biases and are NOT accurate.”
BetFair: The Oscars 2009? We won.
Mike Robb is quick to roar victory for the quasi-accurate BetFair predictions on the Oscars 2009. PS: I credit the accuracy to both the information aggregation mechanism (BetFair’s prediction exchange) and the BetFair traders.