– Nate Silver: 0.6032
– InTrade: 0.3699
InTrade looks much better than Nate Silver on the Oscars 2009.
Waiting for the HubDub numbers, now. Nigel, are you napping or what?
Conditional Likelihood Loss
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Tag Archives: Oscars 2009
BetFair: The Oscars 2009? We won.
Mike Robb is quick to roar victory for the quasi-accurate BetFair predictions on the Oscars 2009.
PS: I credit the accuracy to both the information aggregation mechanism (BetFair’-s prediction exchange) and the BetFair traders.