Tag Archives: Open Institute Of Prediction Markets

Should there be a Prediction Market Institute?

David Pennock: Oops, a clarification: I meant one could ask “Should there be a Prediction Institute?”. I agree a Prediction Institute does not imply market-based, and that prediction and forecasting are roughly the same. I was saying that in a … Continue reading

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The 6 little things David Pennock didn’t tell you about the Prediction Market Institute

- #1. – It is not such a great idea to call it a “prediction market institute”, for the reasons that it excludes the non-market mechanisms and the other collective intelligence mechanisms. (See Daniel’s comment on the Pennock blog, here.) … Continue reading

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The HHS–Sebelius prediction market might be (yet) another case-in-point for documenting velocity.

It is only today (February 19) that the New York Times emerges out of hibernation and headlines: – Kansas Governor Seen as Top Choice in Health Post. — Gov. Kathleen Sebelius is emerging as President Obama’s top choice for secretary … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Midas Oracle Project | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

According to James Surowiecki in THE WISDOM OF CROWDS, the market-generated predictions have been shown to be more reliable than the output of any think tank.

Let’s create a think tank whose output is generated, not by scholars (like Bob), but by sets of prediction markets, then. Previous: The Economist should set up The Open Institute of Prediction Markets. + WHY THE ECONOMIST SHOULD ADD MARKET-GENERATED … Continue reading

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Will The Economist manage its own prediction markets? YES or NO??

Mike Linksvayer, how do you read this??? The Economist‘s Project Red Stripe: Good news, bad news April 27th, 2007 by Ludwig Let’s start with the good news: We’re pretty close to making a decision about what service to bring to … Continue reading

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NEXT SUNDAY, THE FRENCH WILL ELECT REPUBLICAN NICOLAS SARKOZY AS THEIR PRESIDENT.

The Economist tells me I should vote for Nicolas Sarkozy. Well… if they really think he’s “the man”… The French presidential election France’s chance Apr 12th 2007 From The Economist print edition After a quarter-century of drift Nicolas Sarkozy offers … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

The Myth Of Creativity – Innovation matters, but releasing your inner bohemian isn’t the answer.

Robin Hanson: Creativity is in. Seminars teach employees to “think outside the box” and release their inner Picasso. Managers preach innovation, and today’s rich and powerful prefer to describe themselves as creative heroes, valiantly besting the naysayers to bring us … Continue reading

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Is GMU professor Robin Hanson an inventor, an innovator, or… a complete loser??

My title is provocative. Robin Hanson has posted this comment: I’ll take credit for creating some ideas the world has found useful, but I have completely failed both the market test and the academic test. That is, I can’t convince … Continue reading

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Are Chris Masse’s Ideas Crazy ENOUGH For Google??

Bloomberg: Google Inc. looks for ideas that are “really crazy” when sizing up potential purchases, the Internet company’s top dealmaker said. “We look at everything very carefully,” Salman Ullah, Google’s director of corporate development, said yesterday in a speech at … Continue reading

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CBS News Andy Rooney: Let’s Have A Smart Board.

I proposed a new institution, “The Open Institute of Prediction Markets“. I’d like you to take two minutes to read Andy Rooney’s proposal. It has nothing to do with prediction markets, as that wet blanket of Bo Cowgill will quickly … Continue reading

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