Tag Archives: North Carolina

2008 US electoral college: What I am betting on.

PollTrack: – I like the way they color this electoral college map —with 5 colors only (simplicity is good). It is very clear and usable, I believe. You can see 6 states in gray (“too close to call”). I am … Continue reading

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Barack Obama is a Cat’s Whisker away from getting North Carolina in his column, on the InTrade electoral map widget (where the ‘leaning’ mode is the default).

- – UPDATE: Writing the post title, I had in mind some NC polls that favored Barack Obama, but couldn’t find them the links to put them in this post. So, I had in mind a certain upward dynamics for … Continue reading

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North Carolina: the new battleground

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The best research papers on prediction markets

As seen by Andreas Graefe… IIF’s SIG on Prediction Markets Research Papers Basics Several studies explain the concept of prediction markets and provide useful summaries of the method, e.g. – Spann, M. & Skiera, B. (2003). Internet-based Virtual Stock Markets … Continue reading

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The best researchers on prediction markets

CFM: Scholars Check that CFM page for updates. And contact me so I can make additions to the list. (I’ll then re-publish that updated list on Midas Oracle.) – Michael Abramowicz – Michael B. Abramowicz – (Law School, George Washington … Continue reading

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Where to find advice on how to set up your enterprise prediction markets

Consultants – - Inkling – URL: Inkling Markets – (Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A.) Adam Siegel — Post Archives at Midas Oracle Nathan Kontny – NewsFutures – (Maryland, U.S.A. & Paris, France, E.U.) Emile Servan-Schreiber — Post Archives at Midas Oracle Maurice … Continue reading

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WISDOM IN CROWD’S COMMENTS: Who cares about the accuracy of the prediction markets when the polls (or the exit polls) are giving us the primary information that is, a bit later, reflected in the prediction markets?

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Barack Obama will finish off Hillary Clinton by June 15.

- Lawrence O’Donnell (a leftist journalist –but a good one, whom I appreciate): A senior campaign official and Clinton confidante has told me that there will be a Democratic nominee by June 15. [...] Yes, Clinton spokespersons publicly seem to … Continue reading

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Prediction Market Journalism

Credit: Scientific American magazine – Abstract Via Mat Fogarty of Xpree (an innovative firm providing software for enterprise prediction markets) Ask me by e-mail to get a copy of the PDF file. – The problem with the bold statement in … Continue reading

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Prediction Market History + Prediction Market Journalism

The New York Times: [...] Long before political prediction markets sprouted on the Internet, election bets — whether the stakes were money or embarrassing public spectacles — were a ubiquitous part of the American political scene. The practice, which began … Continue reading

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