Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Nevada

A libertarian view on the Internet betting and gambling industry in the United States of America

Written by Chris F. Masse on June 27, 2008 — 2 Comments

Jennifer:
This new bill from our good friends Reps. Paul and Frank, the one that simply makes the UIGEA go away, is the greatest piece of legislation yet on the subject. Sadly, very few poker players are jumping up and down about this. This new bill would save us from burdensome regulation and taxes and bring [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Politics, Regulations | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

BetFair-TradeFair and the National Security Agency (among others) are giving away $260,000 in tournament prizes to attract the world’s best nerdy geeks (who can’t fry an egg, can’t get a Friday night date, but can decipher a computer algorithm).

Written by Chris F. Masse on May 7, 2008 — Leave a Comment

The 2008 TopCoder Open @ Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.A. – 2008-05-11~15
BetFair Corporate – Jobs & Careers
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Posted in Events & Meetings, Information Technology, Jobs - Careers - Hiring | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Google’s Bo Cowgill at DIG on enterprise prediction markets

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 25, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Thursday, May 15, 2008 @ Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.A.
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Previously: Do Google’s enterprise prediction markets work?
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Posted in Events & Meetings | Also tagged , , , , , , , ,

Google’s Bo Cowgill @ 2008 DIG Conference

Written by Chris F. Masse on March 21, 2008 — 1 Comment

2008 DIG Conference: Leveraging Information for Breakthrough Business Performance – (featuring Google’s Bo “Grandizer” Cowgill) – @ Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S.A. – 2008-05-13~15
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RELATED NOTE: I’m preparing a long post about the Cowgill/Wolfers/Zitzewitz paper… If you have positive or negative tips, contact me today…
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Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google – (PDF file [...]

Posted in Events & Meetings | Also tagged , , , , , , ,

Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton.

Written by Caveat Bettor on January 22, 2008 — Leave a Comment

and ties Intrade after seven state contests. Details here.

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged

Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada + Republican primary in South Carolina

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 20, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Here are the event derivative charts of expired InTrade contracts.
[Psstt... I have high hopes about being able to publish the charts of expired BetFair contracts, too, soon. ]
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Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada
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Democratic caucus in Nevada (the Hillary Clinton event derivative was expired at 100):

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Republican caucus in Nevada (the Mitt Romney event derivative [...]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada + Republican primary in South Carolina

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 19, 2008 — Leave a Comment

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Democratic and Republican caucuses in Nevada
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Democratic caucus in Nevada (Hillary Clinton = 57.4%):

BetFair Democratic prediction markets
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Democratic caucus in Nevada (Barack Obama = 42%):

BetFair Democratic prediction markets
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Republican caucus in Nevada (Mitt Romney = 94.9%):

BetFair Republican prediction markets
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Republican primary in South Carolina
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Republican primary in South Carolina (“Field” = Mike Huckabee = 49.5%):

BetFair Republican [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby

Written by Caveat Bettor on January 18, 2008 — 2 Comments

If McCain wins SC, the GOP contest will be called for Intrade. If Thompson or Romney wins, that contest will be called for Zogby. If any other GOP candidate wins, the contest will end in a draw.
If Obama wins NV, the Dem context will be called for Intrade. If Edwards wins, that contest will be [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Prediction markets are rushing to incorporate the latest Nevada polls. [*]

Written by Chris F. Masse on January 18, 2008 — Leave a Comment

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Polls: Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney.
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The Hillary Clinton event derivative has just jumped to 61%, but this price/probability is not yet reflected in the chart below —as I write this early morning, the latest price on the graph I have under my very nose is 40%.

BetFair Democratic prediction markets
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BetFair Republican prediction markets
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Nevada is [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Betting Exchange MatchBook: Antigua or Ireland??

Written by Chris F. Masse on April 21, 2007 — Leave a Comment

Matchbook Officially Launches Exchange Betting Site in North America
05 Dec 2005
(PRESS RELEASE) — Matchbook (www.matchbook.com) announced today that it has officially launched its online exchange betting gaming site, following its successful spring 2005 beta launch. The organization is now positioned to compete aggressively for the $100 billion North American sports betting market.
Unlike conventional bookmaking where [...]

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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