Tag Archives: Nate Silver

Nate Silver criticizes InTrade for its short-lived Obama bounce following Bin Laden’s assassination. — [CHART]

Posted on May 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Scenarios.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Prediction Journalism, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged assassination, Barack Obama, bets, Betting, betting markets, bounce, death, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, killing, Nate Silver, Osama bin Laden, Politics, Prediction Journalism, prediction markets, Predictions, US politics | Leave a comment

Prediction market stability makes prices informative, while prediction market instability generates liquidity. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Andrew Gelman finds Rajiv Sethi’s remarks interesting: Markets are impressive mechanisms for information aggregation but they’re not magic. The information has to come from somewhere, and markets are inherently always living in the phase transition between stability and instability. (It … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, information, instability, InTrade, liquidity, Nate Silver, odds, prediction markets, prices, probabilities, Rajiv Sethi, stability | Leave a comment

Rajiv Sethi responds to Jason Ruspini. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 9, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi: I don’t see a huge problem with what Nate did either (especially since he added the caveat that he disagreed with some of the imputed beliefs). My point was just that there a lot more interesting information in … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Nate Silver, odds, prediction markets, probabilities, Rajiv Sethi | 2 Comments

On the Interpretation of Prediction Market Data – REDUX — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 8, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Jason Ruspini: If you have varying account sizes, you know right away the price isn’t an evenly weighted average of beliefs, but I don’t see a huge problem with what Nate Silver wrote given his purposes. He just said they … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Nate Silver, odds, prediction markets, probabilities, Rajiv Sethi | Leave a comment

On the Interpretation of Prediction Market Data – [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 6, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Nate Silver, odds, prediction markets, probabilities, Rajiv Sethi | 3 Comments

Political Forecasting: Justin Wolfers vs. Nate Silver

Posted on October 24, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

- Andrew Gelman nailed it: In summary, “momentum” can exist, but the places where you’ll see it is in races where current public opinion is out of step with best predictions. The mere information that a race has a 5-point … Continue reading →

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Andrew Gelman, forecasting, Justin Wolfers, momemtum, Nate Silver, Politics, random walk, statistics, US politics | 1 Comment

Pollster John Zogby attacks statistician Nate Silver. — “You take other people’s polls, compare records for predictions, add in some purely arbitrary (and not transparent) weights, then make your own projections and rankings.”

Posted on July 7, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

John Zogby to Nate Silver: Don’t Create Standards You Will Find Hard to Maintain Yourself. Be Honest. Understand That There’s Much More to Being a Good Pollster. Appreciate Innovation. Do Some Polling. Nate Silver responds. UPDATE: Prof Andrew Gelman’s take.

Posted in Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged forecasters, forecasting, John Zogby, Nate Silver, polling, pollsters, statistics | Leave a comment

Nate Silver rates New York City’s neighborhoods… and Jason Ruspini objects.

Posted on April 19, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Nate Silver rates New York City’s neighborhoods. Jason Ruspini: The piece is problematic insofar as it underweights proximity to areas where people work, which results in high ratings for distant neighborhoods and low ratings for central ones, on top of … Continue reading →