Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Nate Silver

REVOLUTION: Nate Silver says the Internet changed everything in politics. – [VIDEO]

16:35 into, Nate Silver is asked whether he would open up the data fire hose, one day:

SXSW: Nate Silver explains how he approached political forecasting for the 2008 US presidential elections. – [VIDEO]

In part #2, he speaks about the books he is writing:

CONFUSED: Nate Silver’s marshmallow politics – [VIDEO]

ACCUSATION: Nate Silver over-uses Wikipedia. – [VIDEO]

Nate Silver explains how he builds his forecasting models. – [VIDEO]

Via Joe Weisenthal

Republican Scott Brown has become the Senator-elect from Massachusetts.

Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing. —REDUX

Nate Silver:
There are many assumptions in this model which may not be valid []. Although I believe that these are generally a fairly well-balanced set of assumptions relative to the universe of possible assumptions (i.e. alternate sets of assumptions would tend to cluster around the 25 percent number), it is hard to know for sure.

Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing.

6 scenarios
United States Senate special election in Massachusetts, 2010

Why Nate Silver is wrong about the usefulness of long-term prediction markets: IT DIDN’T WORK. IT IS A PATENTED FAIL.

Nate Silver becomes a little Robin Hanson fanboy… after just a lunch with the Master.
ACT ONE: Nate Silver lunched with Robin Hanson, one month ago, to interview him for his future book about forecasting.
ACT TWO: Robin Hanson has published yet another post pumping up prediction markets for solving every problem on Earth —this time, yelling [...]

2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race: Was Nate Silver’s prediction more accurate than InTrade’s?

Nate Silver’s prediction (November 2, 2009): “I’d make Christie about the 4:3 favorite.”
[ UPDATE: Nate Silver's prediction post-mortem on the 2009 US elections.]
You can see that days before Elections 2009, InTrade was too heavy on Corzine:

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