Tag Archives: Nate Silver
REVOLUTION: Nate Silver says the Internet changed everything in politics. – [VIDEO]
16:35 into, Nate Silver is asked whether he would open up the data fire hose, one day:
Nate Silver explains how he builds his forecasting models. – [VIDEO]
Via Joe Weisenthal
Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing. —REDUX
Nate Silver:
There are many assumptions in this model which may not be valid []. Although I believe that these are generally a fairly well-balanced set of assumptions relative to the universe of possible assumptions (i.e. alternate sets of assumptions would tend to cluster around the 25 percent number), it is hard to know for sure.
Massachusetts special election: Nate Silver knowns nothing.
6 scenarios
United States Senate special election in Massachusetts, 2010
2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race: Was Nate Silver’s prediction more accurate than InTrade’s?
Nate Silver’s prediction (November 2, 2009): “I’d make Christie about the 4:3 favorite.”
[ UPDATE: Nate Silver's prediction post-mortem on the 2009 US elections.]
You can see that days before Elections 2009, InTrade was too heavy on Corzine:
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