Tag Archives: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
QUESTION TO THE READERS: Could anyone guess what Nassim Nicholas Taleb would think of the prediction markets?
Fortune:
The idea that catastrophe can strike without warning does not seem particularly hard to understand. Why doesn’t Wall Street ever seem to allow for that possibility? And why doesn’t it learn from past catastrophes?
Let me blame business schools and the financial economics establishment – they have a vested interest in promoting models and devaluing common [...]
Nassim Nicholas Taleb likens modern-day financial markets to medicine in the 1800s, when going to a hospital in London or Paris multiplied your risk of death by four times, he says. Similarly, quants increase risk by deploying flawed financial tools designed to reduce it, he argues.
Via Stan Jonas, Nassim Nicholas Taleb cited in a Bloomberg article (Taleb Outsells Greenspan as Black Swan Gives Worst Turbulence):
Stress tests are inherently risky because they ignore rare but potentially devastating events. [...] .. ["stress test" = Wall Street lingo for examining how a market rout will play out]
Past shortfall doesn’t predict future shortfall. [...]
Bayesian [...]
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