Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: monopolies

User revolt against the de facto monopolies in prediction markets?

InTrade (in the U.S.) and BetFair (in the U.K.) are de facto monopolistic, real-money prediction exchanges. Will those monopolies spur users to revolt? Will we see an open-source movement in prediction markets? That’s the question I asked privately to some of our good friends. The guys admit they don’t have the first clue, but are [...]

“BetFair’s de facto monopoly will eventually end…”

I agree with the second paragraph —but maybe not with the thesis of the post.

The Guardian now treats BetFair as a monopoly.

- The Guardian on the BetFair premium charges, the privatization of the BetFair forum, and BetFair’s monopoly. – [Our previous story.]

- The Financial Times on the BetFair prediction market(s) about the next UK general elections.

BetFair impose new “Premium Charges”, and their very active traders are up in arms. – Plus, do BetFair gag the critics?

My analysis of this PR debacle:

BetFair has a very complex information technology system, which is very costly, making BetFair less profitable than the fixed-odds betting operators (the big British bookmakers). They attack the problem with a dual approach: they try to lower the IT costs associated with each bet transaction (see FlyWheel Lite), and they [...]

Midas Oracle is the only publication that defends the event derivative traders (even when they are too sarcastic, boisterous, or annoying) —at the risk of infuriating the prediction market big brass.

InTrade-TradeSports has a web server misconfiguration problem, and CEO John Delaney has a character problem.

As I wrote at the time, the InTrade-TradeSports websites were unavailable, last Friday, August 29, 2008, during a good part of the morning.
InTrade-TradeSports is not only an event derivative exchange, but also a webspot that non-trading people often consult to get the latest market-generated probabilistic predictions. Last Friday, in addition to the traders, many people [...]

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