Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: model

Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages

Written by Chris F. Masse on November 26, 2007 — Leave a Comment

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Based on that book by Carlota Perez, the blogger at The Park Paradigm says that BetFair is a 6th-paradigm company.
In her model, the world has experienced five technological revolutions and “techno-economic” paradigms in the modern era, starting with the Industrial Revolution in the late 18th century, through to the current end of 20th century paradigm [...]

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Business, Inventions & Innovations | Also tagged , ,

Where is it that the prediction markets can make a macro difference, mister Robin Hanson?

Written by Chris F. Masse on September 26, 2007 — 3 Comments

Prediction market consultant Robin Hanson wants to be paid according to outputs instead of inputs. Smart blog post. However, I will say this, if I may. I think it should be up to the consultant to tell the client where exactly the prediction markets can make a macro difference, compared to the forecasting tools in [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Consulting | Also tagged , , , , ,

Market Makers for Multi-Outcome Markets

Written by Chris Hibbert on September 10, 2007 — 21 Comments

Previous articles in this series have discussed market makers and how they differ from book order markets, how to improve Liquidity in multi-Outcome claims, and how to integrate a Market Maker into Book order systems. But none of those talked in any detail about how a multi-outcome market maker coordinates prices and probabilities. [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Explainers, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs, Software | Also tagged , , , , , , , ,

Leading political indicators

Written by Alex Forshaw on April 24, 2007 — 2 Comments

American politics does not suffer from a shortage of polls. Zogby. Gallup. Rasmussen. SurveyUSA. Mason-Dixon. Polimetrix… In an information-glutted world, what matters is not the supply of sources, but the ability to glean trustworthy information from the larger swath of poor data.
Different polling organizations have different strengths and weaknesses. Some use “tight screens” to scope [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators, Politics | Also tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,

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