Tag Archives: liquidity
BRITISH CRETINERY: The Financial Times features the InTrade probabilities —not the BetFair ones.
This is really stupid. The decerebrated journalos at the FT chose to feature the illiquid, Ireland-based, un-regulated InTrade prediction markets instead of the very liquid, UK-based, regulated BetFair prediction markets on the next British congress.
Makes no sense at all.
The BetFair PR boys have an omelet on their face. They should work harder.
DISAMBIGUATION: The “illiquid” adjective [...]
What is the liquidity on InTrade’s financial prediction markets?
My dear honorable Carlos Graterol,
I acknowledge you are a little InTrade fanboy, and that flies OK in my book. You say there are 3,000 daily transactions on the daily DJIA prediction markets. (It was much higher than that before the CFTC fined InTrade.) While I reckon that this liquidity is enough to generate trustworthy predictions, [...]
My response on high frequency trading, price discovery, liquidity, and transaction costs is up.
Here, in response to this, which has Wall Street abuzz today.
An excerpt from “Bovine Scatology”:
Ten years ago, your mutual fund manager would have to use Goldman or a competitor’s block desk to move 100,000 shares of Proctor and Gamble. And they would have to trade an eighth wide, i.e. 12.5 cents per share. The financial [...]
Mike Linksvayer *himself* is to blame for the non-liquidity of his Wikipedia prediction markets.
Mike Linksvayer:
Prior to the Wikipedia community vote on adopting CC BY-SA it crossed my mind to set up several play money prediction market contracts concerning the above outcomes conditioned on Wikipedia adopting CC BY-SA by August 1, 2009, for which I did set up a contract. It is just as well that I didn’t — [...]
What do the prediction market on the Mei Moses Fine Art Index and the prediction markets on climate change have in common?
They were both lambasted by a famous, controversial and bombastic prediction market blogger… and they both failed in spectacular fashion.
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Here’s what I wrote in October 2008:
InTrade are going to open prediction markets on the future price of art. These innovative prediction markets will fail miserably.
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The InTrade prediction market on the Mei Moses Fine Art Index [...]
Illiquid prediction exchanges to liquid prediction exchanges: “You’re too volatile.”
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Previously: Emile Servan-Schreiber on InTrade’s volatility
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