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Tag Archives: leading indicators
Who has the best analysis for Chicago’s failed bid for the Olympics?
Prof Michael Giberson: I think the “small, secretive committee†explanation is weak []. Bradbury does an excellent job sifting through the shifting coalitions revealed in the three rounds of IOC voting. Neither Madrid nor Toyko showed any significant ability to … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged 2016 Summer Olympics, accuracy, BetFair, Chicago, Collective Forecasting, HubDub, International Olympic Committee, InTrade, IOC, leading indicators, Olympics, prediction markets
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Never try to divine the IOC decisions on Olympics venues, Mike.
Prof Michael Giberson, No “careful observer knew this in advance” (about Chicago being a lemon), for the simple reason that if they knew, they would have downgraded Chicago on the InTrade and BetFair prediction markets, and Ben Shannon would have … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged 2016 Summer Olympics, accuracy, BetFair, Chicago, Collective Forecasting, HubDub, International Olympic Committee, InTrade, IOC, leading indicators, Olympics, prediction markets
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Could we have divined that Chicago was a lemon?
Prof Michael Giberson: Chris, isn’t it odd for you to state “Chicago had not the slightest chance to begin with.†The phrase implies you believe that the probability of Chicago’s selection was near zero all along, but you have been … Continue reading
Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged 2016 Summer Olympics, accuracy, Chicago, Collective Forecasting, International Olympic Committee, IOC, leading indicators, Olympics, prediction markets
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Predicting the Present with Google Trends
Predicting the Present with Google Trends – (PDF file) – by Al Varian et al. Google Trends + Google Insights For Search Via Prof Levitt Previously: Flu predictions based on querying behavior (on Google and Yahoo!) are somewhat less impressive … Continue reading
Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Forecasting (Science & Practice), The Internet
Tagged Al Varian, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Google, Google Insights for Search, Google Search, Google Trends, Google Web Search, lagging indicators, leading indicators, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions, Search Engines, search traffic
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