Tag Archives: leading indicators
Who has the best analysis for Chicago’s failed bid for the Olympics?
Prof Michael Giberson:
I think the “small, secretive committee” explanation is weak [].
Bradbury does an excellent job sifting through the shifting coalitions revealed in the three rounds of IOC voting. Neither Madrid nor Toyko showed any significant ability to attract votes as the rounds proceeded. It was going to be Rio or Chicago all [...]
Never try to divine the IOC decisions on Olympics venues, Mike.
Prof Michael Giberson,
No “careful observer knew this in advance” (about Chicago being a lemon), for the simple reason that if they knew, they would have downgraded Chicago on the InTrade and BetFair prediction markets, and Ben Shannon would have not bet $6,000 on Chicago.
I look forward to your contrite correction on the frontpage of Knowledge [...]
Could we have divined that Chicago was a lemon?
Prof Michael Giberson:
Chris, isn’t it odd for you to state “Chicago had not the slightest chance to begin with.” The phrase implies you believe that the probability of Chicago’s selection was near zero all along, but you have been claiming that it is impossible to predict anything about the outcomes of IOC selection processes.
Also, the [...]
Predicting the Present with Google Trends
Predicting the Present with Google Trends – (PDF file) – by Al Varian et al.
Google Trends + Google Insights For Search
Via Prof Levitt
Previously: Flu predictions based on querying behavior (on Google and Yahoo!) are somewhat less impressive than simply looking to the recent past of flu levels.
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