Tag Archives: John Tierney

John Tierney won a $5,000 bet with Matthew Simmons.

Posted on December 28, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

“I called Mr. Simmons to discuss a bet. To his credit –and unlike some other Malthusians– he was eager to back his predictions with cash. He expected the price of oil, then about $65 a barrel, to more than triple … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Betting, Prediction Post-Mortem, The Global Economy | Tagged bets, Betting, commodities, energy, energy price, John Tierney, Matthew Simmons, oil, Oil price | Leave a comment

John Tierney responds to Chris Masse —but John Tierney is still mistaken about the real social utility of the InTrade prediction markets.

Posted on November 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- My second remark to John Tierney: “I was impressed to see” – You are too easily impressed. The nature of the prediction markets is to aggregate information quickly. Traders are very well informed (they do read Nate Silver and … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, betting markets, event derivative markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), InTrade, John McCain, John Tierney, prediction accuracy, prediction markets | 4 Comments

ElectoralMap.net has been over-selling InTrade’s predictive power to the public —as John Tierney’s just done.

Posted on November 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

- They focus on the predicted number of electoral votes for each presidential candidate. That’s the wrong method. They should look state by state. – They don’t tell the public that InTrade just aggregated the state polls, which were quite … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged accuracy, ElectoralMap.net, InTrade, John Tierney, prediction markets | 2 Comments

“The Intrade bettors expected Mr. Obama to end up with 364 votes in the Electoral College —one less than he actually got.”

Posted on November 24, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

My remark to John Tierney: InTrade got it [almost] spot on because they were wrong on Missouri (which was predicted to go for Obama but went to McCain) and wrong too on Indiana (which was predicted to go for McCain … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, accuracy, Barack Obama, BetFair, betting markets, event derivative markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), HubDub, InTrade, John McCain, John Tierney, prediction accuracy, prediction markets | 5 Comments

Prediction Markets 101

Posted on January 12, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Prediction markets produce dynamic, objective probabilistic predictions on the outcomes of future events by aggregating disparate pieces of information that traders bring when they agree on prices. Prediction markets are meta forecasting tools that feed on advanced indicators (like polls … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Explainers | Tagged Adam, Adam Siegel, Chris Masse, definition, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Everyday Economist, explainer, George Tziralis, Jason Ruspini, John Tierney, Jonathan Kennedy, Justin Wolfers, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, meta forecasting tools, Michael Giberson, Mike Giberson, Nigel Eccles, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Steve Roman, USD | Leave a comment

Who did best in explaining the prediction markets to the lynching crowd?

Posted on January 11, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

After the New Hampshire fiasco, 16 18 people came to defend the prediction markets, so far. So far, the best takes are from: George Tziralis Robin Hanson Jonathan Kennedy and I’ll give the 4th spot to a combo, mixing takes … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta) | Tagged accuracy, Adam, Adam Siegel, Brent Stinsky, Chris Hibbert, Christmas, Collective Intelligence, critics, David Jack, David Pennock, David Perry, David Yu, Donald Luskin, Emile Servan-Schreiber, event derivative markets, event derivatives, George Tziralis, Greg Mankiw, James Surowiecki, Jed Christiansen, John Delaney, John Tierney, Jonathan Kennedy, Ken Kittlitz, Mark Davis, Mike Linksvayer, New Hampshire, Panos Ipeirotis, Paul Tetlock, prediction markets, Richard Borghesi, Robin Hanson, Steve Bass, Steve Roman, Tyler Cowen, wisdom of crowds, YouTube | 1 Comment

Prediction Market Industry Association = useless, so far

Posted on January 10, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

We have witnessed a backlash against the prediction markets just after the Hew Hampshire fiasco. Some bloggers and journalists picked on the prediction markets (InTrade, that is), even though both the polls and the pundits were awfully wrong too. [*] … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Industry), Prediction Journalism | Tagged Adam, Adam Siegel, blog, bloggers, Chris Masse, Emile Servan-Schreiber, Eric Zitzewitz, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Everyday Economist, Felix Salmon, George Tziralis, Jason Ruspini, Jed Christiansen, John Tierney, Jonathan Kennedy, Justin Wolfers, Lance Fortnow, Leighton Vaughan-Williams, Mike Giberson, Nigel Eccles, PMIA, polls, Prediction Market Industry Association, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Sean Park, Steve Roman, the New York Times, Tim Harford, Wall Street Journal | 5 Comments

Prediction Markets = the greatest time-saving invention of this century

Posted on January 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

John Tierney (and again this morning): [...] Keeping up with a presidential campaign used to require at least an hour a day of wading through punditry, and much more time during the peak primary season. But now, with a few … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Barry Ritholtz, Collective Intelligence, IntTrade, John Tierney, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

Does New York Times’ Paul Krugman slam Wall Street Journal’s Justin Wolfers, or New York Times’ John Tierney, or both?

Posted on January 9, 2008 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Krugman: January 9, 2008, 8:14 am Nobody knows anything But to be more specific, the prediction markets â€” which you see, again and again, touted as having some mystical power to aggregate information, know no more than the conventional … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged InTrade, Iowa, John Tierney, Justin Wolfers, New Hampshire, New York Times, Paul Krugman, prediction markets, Wall Street Journal | Leave a comment

Copernican Principle: How To Predict the End of the World

Posted on July 17, 2007 by Koleman Strumpf

John Tierney’s column the Science section of today’s New York Times discusses a method for forecasting difficult to predict events. The Copernican Method, advocated by Princeton physicist Richard Gott, allows one to generate confidence intervals that an event will occur … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged Democratic administration, John Tierney, last Democratic president, New York Times, Princeton physicist, Richard Gott, Stonehenge, the New York Times | Leave a comment

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