Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Tag Archives: Jason Kottke

Amateur Journalists (Bloggers) Vs. Professional Journalists (Media) Vs. Wisdom Of Crowds & Collective Intelligence (Wikipedia)

And the wisdom of crowds won, of course. That’s the conclusion I draw from reading Rogers Cadenhead at WorkBench, who assessed what would be the settlement of the LongBets wager on:
In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York [...]

Google Search, the New York Times, and the blogs

In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times’ Web site.
That is a bet recorded at the LongBets foundation. 2,000 bucks are at stake. But two things have happened recently that may impact the outcome of this bet:

The [...]

2 bits of advice for the newbie bloggers or webmasters

#1. Register your own domain name. Don’t let your blog or website lives as a sub-website (midasoracle.wordpress.com). Generally, never be dependent of one service provider. (((See how Blogger-dependent Perry Eidelbus is so pissed off by the new version of his blogging service provider, Blogger, that he quit blogging.))) Organize in such a way that, if [...]

User-Created Prediction Markets & Ranking Methodology

If we are bound to have user-created prediction markets (Foresight Exchange, Flutter, Inkling, InTrade, etc.), then, by the same token, we need an appropriate ranking methodology to present only the most interesting (and urgent?) contracts to the frontpage readership.
Just for your curiosity, see this Digg-equivalent FAQ, and make sure to give a look at this [...]

Yahoo! research scientist David Pennock’s 15 minutes of fame

Cascade of events.
#1. I sent the link to Odd Head (David Pennock’s excellent blog) to professor Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution. (I also sent him the procrastination link, and the methods of visualization link.)
#2. He published it, and now David Pennock is “marginalized”.
#3. Jason Kottke, seeing the Marginal Revolution blog post, went reading David Pennock’s [...]

How can you have bloggers write on your products or services?

Scan this long Kottke review of the iPhone. And now ask yourself: How could you make people blog like crazy about your prediction markets?
(I don’t think that Jason Kottke received an iPhone for free.) [But I could well be wrong.]

PEAR lab (Princeton Engineering Anomalies Research) – REDUX – Retrocausality in physics

In my previous blog post, I said that Princeton professor Robert Jahn has been unable of finding the right hypothesis about the so-called “psychic phenomena” (if any). I mentioned the work of a theoretical physicist, Olivier Costa de Beauregard, who interprets the E.P.R. paradox using the concept of “retrocausality” (the reversal of the arrow of [...]

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