Tag Archives: James Surowiecki

Paul Hewitt on the usefulness of the prediction markets — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on August 2, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Paul Hewitt: I don’t think there is any question that the usefulness of prediction markets has been exaggerated. We don’t hear much from James Surowiecki anymore. So a few of those polled probably indicated that he doesn’t exaggerate the usefulness … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets | Leave a comment

Have Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki been exaggerating the usefulness of the prediction markets? — [SURVEY RESULT]

Posted on July 28, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Here’s the result of the Kauffman Foundation poll: – UPDATE: Here’s an example (among many) of the grave problems with prediction markets, which are unreported by the media. – PDF document. – - – - – - – - – … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, The Global Economy | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, derivatives, Economics, economics bloggers, economists, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, poll, polls, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, survey, surveys, usefulness, usefulness of prediction markets | 1 Comment

That’s a tough one… How would you have answered? — [POLL]

Posted on July 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

UPDATE: The poll result.

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Kauffman Foundation, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, usefulness | Leave a comment

InTrade on the elimination of Osama Bin Laden — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on May 7, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Mike Giberson: How do we know, now, that Intrade’s market price was not an accurate estimate of the probability bin Laden was killed or captured by September 2011? Is an prior estimate of 50 percent likelihood that a tossed coin … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged Al Qaeda, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, InTrade, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, Osama bin Laden, post-mortem, post-mortems, prediction markets, Prediction Post-Mortem, prediction post-mortems, Predictions, Robin Hanson, terrorism, terrorists | 1 Comment

QualiQuanti’s Daniel Bô misunderstands collective intelligence. — [REBUTTAL]

Posted on May 3, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Ignorant people misunderstands the concept of collective intelligence. The latest instance is Daniel Bô, who works for the advertising industry in Europe. In a commercial brochure bragging about his ethereal prowess and the suprême intelligence of his associates, Daniel Bô … Continue reading →

Posted in Business, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged brand content, Collective Intelligence, content marketing, Daniel Bô, James Surowiecki, marketing, QualiQuanti, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

The prediction market ideology still lives on. — [COMMENT]

Posted on April 21, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

David Pennock: Not to put too much faith into the unscientific Gartner hype cycle, but it does feel like a time of backlash responding to some early over optimism. As cooler heads prevail, and the technology speaks for itself, I … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged betting markets, David Pennock, event derivative markets, event derivatives, James Surowiecki, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, prediction market industry, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Did the prediction market industry fail because of the lack of usability of the prediction markets? — [REBUTTAL]

Posted on April 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

David Pennock: I like an analogy of Playstation versus Wii. Just like Wii opened up video gaming to a mass audience including women, I think there’s room for simpler/friendlier sites like smarkets that can open up gambling to a much … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged BetFair, betting markets, David Pennock, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, InTrade-TradeSports, James Surowiecki, John Delaney, Justin Wolfers, prediction market industry, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, The Sporting Exchange, TradeSports | 2 Comments

InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Contra to Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki (who all have exaggerated the usefulness of the prediction markets), collective forecasting is not a tool we can rely on for just anything. As I wrote in the past, we need … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, electricity, energy, event derivative markets, Fukushima, InTrade, James Surowiecki, Japan, Justin Wolfers, nuclear electricity, nuclear energy, nuclear energy plant, nuclear energy plants, nuclear power, power plant, power plants, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, traders | 1 Comment

Midas Oracle’s April Fools 2011 — [HUMOR]

Posted on April 1, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

–> Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki are celebrating the fact that the prediction market industry is now a one-trillion-dollar-a-year industry.

Posted in Humor | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, James Surowiecki, Justin Wolfers, prediction market industry, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Justin Wolfers didn’t inform the Freakonomics readers about InTrade’s mistake related to the contract statements of the ‘dictator departure markets’. – [RANT]

Posted on February 23, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Justin Wolfers, Robin Hanson, James Surowiecki, John Stossel and the Wall Street Journal diarists [*] are not motivated by the love of the truth and the defense of the traders. They never say a word about the dark face of … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Ethics, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements | Tagged bets, Betting, betting dispute, betting markets, bettors, contract statements, Ethics, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, James Surowiecki, John Stossel, Justin Wolfers, prediction market dispute, prediction market statements, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Wall Street Journal | Leave a comment

Tag Archives: James Surowiecki

Meta

Recent Posts